Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions: 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KILN 211126 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 626 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT CONTINUE TO EXTEND BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FINALLY MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND ALSO IN INDIANA NORTH OF I-70. EXPECT THIS LATTER AREA TO SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS FAR THERE HAS ONLY BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOUTHWEST ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOG MAY REMAIN ONLY PATCHY THROUGH DAYBREAK. SOME CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH WITH HEATING. GUIDANCE CONSENSUS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR HIGHS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STILL LINGERING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. INITIAL SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WILL STAY SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THIS COMBINED WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT ONLY FELT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE WARRANTED. GENERALLY WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THEN CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP READINGS WARMER MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 00Z GFS...GEFS AND CANADIAN WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A SLOW OUTLIER. WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH BRINGS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE 00Z ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THERE WILL BE A FURTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON THANKSGIVING. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY NIGHT IN COLD CYCLONIC FLOW. LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY BRINGING A DRIER BUT COOL DAY. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. FOG WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. THIS WILL EDGE INTO KLUK AND KILN TAF SITES AND THEREFORE HAVE PUT IN TEMPO MVFR CIGS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z. CU WILL STICK AROUND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN TAF SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER FROM SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...NOVAK
