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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KILN 101119
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
619 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABE
FETCH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PIVOT POINT OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WAS NOTED NOT TOO LONG
AGO IN RADAR IMAGE AND WILL BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED OVER WEST
CENTRAL OHIO AND NW FCST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE FLOW
TURNS NW...LAKE EFFECT BANDS OF SNOW WILL CROSS THROUGH
CONNERSVILLE AND BROOKVILLE INDIANA...THROUGH CINCINNATI...AND
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHEAST THROUGH RIPLEY AND MAYSVILLE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHEN THE WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE DROPPED.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TODAY AND I WAS NOT GOING TO DROP A WATCH
WITH ONGOING SNOW AND BLUSTERY CONDITONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH TURNS OFF BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER WILL PERSIST THORUGH THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE FROM SW-
NE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF SKIES CLEAR
AND WINDS SLACK UNDER THE HIGH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN CURRENT TEMPS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
TOOK THE CHANCE FOR MEAUSRABLE SNOW OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT COULD
NOT RULE OUT SOME STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ON THURSDAY
IN NW FLOW. DID NOT PUT THIS IN THE FORECAST ATTM AS MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO DECREASE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SNOW WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT
RUN.

TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF THE 20S WITH FRESH SNOW COVER
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. KEPT THE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE TREND THAT
WAS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND THE FA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.  THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.  HAVE LEFT
THIS OUT OF THE FA FOR NOW WITH THE GFS THE ONLY MODEL PICKING UP ON
THIS FEATURE.  MODELS START TO DIVERGE FOR THE LATE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THE GFS IS FAR MORE PRONOUNCED
WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS WEAKER.  HAVE INCREASED CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR NOW.
THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM.  SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF ON MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FOR TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SECONDARY TROF HAS BEEN SLOW TO PUSH THRU INDIANA THIS MORNING. IT
IS FINALLY APPROACHING THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER AND SHOULD REACH
THE WRN TAFS AROUND 13Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW AND WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30KT CAUSING MORE BLSN.

CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND SFC AND H5 LOWS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
DAY...PULLING MOISTURE OFF LAKE MI. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
AFFECT THE TAFS THRU THE DAY. BY LATE AFTN...H5 FLOW BECOMES LESS
CYCLONIC...SO EXPECT SHSN TO BEGINS TO TAPER OFF...BUT SHOULD STILL
SEE SOME FLURRIES. THE WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFT
00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ026-
     034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     KYZ089>100.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR INZ050-
     058-059-066-073>075-080.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES