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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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000
FXUS61 KRLX 101047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS NORTHEAST WITH WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING
IN THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY. COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY SLOT IN PLACE FOR NOW AS CONVECTIVE SNOW SQUALL EXITS THE CWA.
DESCENDING AIR BEHIND THE FRONT REALLY WHIPPING SNOW AROUND
OUTSIDE...AND WILL EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED LIKE A ROCK BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL...AND A FLASH FREEZE HAS OCCURRED. MOST LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN
INTO THE TEENS AT THIS POINT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK EAST...AND A BACK SIDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WITHIN THE PARENT LOW WILL SWING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OF LARGER
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNING NORTHWESTERLY...WHEN
THE UPSLOPE WILL COMMENCE. THERE IS SOME ICE ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR...BUT THERE STILL ARE OPEN WATER SOURCES
FOR MOISTURE. WILL EXPECT MOISTURE PLUMES TO ADVECT INTO THE
CWA...WITH TRAJECTORIES TARGETING THE WESTERN ZONES AND ALL OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH IS PLENTIFUL...THROUGH 700HPA. SO
WITH THE WIND...WIND BLOWN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AN ISSUE ALL
DAY...AND SLOWLY TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...LEAVING THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS LAST. BEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
THROUGHOUT.

AIR DRIES OUT TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WILL SLOWLY
SHUT OFF THE NORTHWEST FLOW FAUCET.

COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WINDS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS THROUGH
TODAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. THESE VALUES DROP TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY...WITH NORTH NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW BY
THEN...DIMINISHING THE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT KEEPING QUITE COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND FREEZING LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE
LOWER 20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS.

USED MET NUMBERS FOR FOR HIGHS THURSDAY TWEAKING DOWN FEW DEGREES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS CLOSER TO H850 TEMPS BEEN AROUND
MINUS 11C PER NAM/SREF/UKMET/ECMWF. WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR LOWS THU AND FRI NIGHT...AND WITH HPG
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LINGER A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS SHOW THE COLD PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL COLD
PATTERN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
IMPULSES IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH STRONG GUSTS OUT OF
THE WEST AT 30-40KTS AT TIMES. IFR VISIBILITIES EXPECTED IN
FREQUENT SNOW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR. CEILINGS SHOULD HOVER
IN THE LOW END MVFR RANGE. UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY TODAY...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ005>007-
     009>011-017>020-027>032-035>040-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ033>038-046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ008-
     013>016-024>026-033-034.
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26
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