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FXAK67 PAJK 232333
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
333 PM AKDT Thu May 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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/Through Friday night/...Unsettled weather will
persist through this entire short range forecast period. Showers
from the front currently passing over the Panhandle will diminish
overnight and Friday features only scattered to isolated shower
activity. No widespread sun breaks however. The next front will
enter the eastern Gulf from the west late Friday afternoon with
rain beginning on the outer coast late evening. By late Friday
night, all locations west of Clarence Strait and points north
should be back in steady rain for the beginning of the holiday
weekend.

The current cold front will advect in a slightly cooler airmass,
so overnight lows Thursday night will be a few degrees cooler than
Wednesday night and some locations may see lows down into the
upper 30`s, but frost is not a concern. Highs for Friday ranging
from the lower 50s to the upper 50s.

Public zone winds continue to be non-impactful. Marine
winds generally non-impactful as well with the exception of
Clarence Strait this afternoon. Winds there have been 25 kts out
of the southeast all morning but began to relax by mid afternoon.
Am expecting a shift to the northwest as the front pushes through
early this evening.


.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Memorial Day/...This Memorial Day
Weekend is marked by a stacked low in the Alaskan Gulf slowly
filling and drifting south. From this system, constant onshore
flow from the south to southwest will move into the panhandle,
generating rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy marine
conditions. The southern panhandle looks to be hit the hardest
relatively, with steady light rain for the entire weekend. The
northern half of the panhandle has the highest likelihood of
seeing periods of no rain, with increased chances the further
north one is. However, these areas will not be able to escape the
clouds as the entire AOR looks to be overcast with not a hint of
sun, except for the extreme northern panhandle. Southerly winds
over marine look to max out at 20 knot sustained winds, mainly
focused on the southern panhandle and outer coast throughout the
weekend.

One note of uncertainty in the forecast is the potential for quick
moving systems tracking from the south along the gulf coast. Ensemble
and deterministic models are having trouble determining when,
where, and how strong these mesoscale features will be. If they do
develop, the predominantly southerly flow in the inner channels
will likely take an increasingly easterly component as they
traverse northward. Areas such as Fredereck Sound, Sumner Strait,
Icy Strait, Cross Sound, and Peril Strait to name a few could see
increased wind speeds, possibly up to 25-30 knots.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Mostly MVFR to occasional IFR conditions as front
moves over the panhandle producing steady rain and low ceiling
with periods of heavier rain and low cloud cover. Short break for
a few hours later this evening but MVFR conditions expected to
persist, with IFR CIGS and BCFG looking more likely by early
Friday morning. when fog lifts more favorable flying weather
Friday. Some low level turbulence but not enough to warrant LLWS.
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&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fritsch
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...PRB

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