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185
FXUS61 KAKQ 030816
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through late week with daily chances for
scattered showers and storms. A cold front pushes through Thursday
night into Friday bringing drier conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Scattered light showers continue this morning with thunderstorms
this afternoon.

- There is a threat for localized urban/poor drainage flooding
across central and southeast Virginia this afternoon into this
evening.

The latest WX analysis indicates a weak shortwave moving across the
local area with scattered light showers continuing to develop. This
convection should gradually move E this morning, potentially
tapering off by mid-late morning. Temps as of 340 AM ranged from the
mid 60s to around 70F with morning lows a degree or two cooler.

Instability increases by this afternoon as dewpoints rise into the
upper 60s (to around 70F in spots) with temps rising into the mid
80s. Weak NW flow aloft will prevail, and another weak shortwave
will approach later today before tracking over the area tonight into
early Tue. A weak surface low forms over central VA Mon this
afternoon, allowing for enough surface convergence for scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. CAMs continue to show the highest
coverage of convection along the I-64 corridor, especially in SE VA.
Will maintain likely PoPs for areas generally along and E of I-95
and along I-64 in central to SE VA. Elsewhere, have chance PoPs as
storm coverage is expected to be a bit less. With relatively slow
storm motions expected given the weak deep-layer flow and moderately
high (1.4-1.8") PW values, any storm will be capable of producing a
quick 1-2" of rain. This would be enough to result in flooding of
urban, suburban, and poor drainage areas. WPC has maintained a MRGL
ERO for central and SE VA to account for the localized flash flood
risk. Additionally, a few storms may be strong with gusts to 40-50
mph in the strongest storms due to wet microbursts. Storms taper off
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight in the
mid to upper 60s expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 405 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday with
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

High pressure slides S from New England to the Mid Atlantic
coastline on Tue which allows a bit of a weak backdoor cold front to
push inland. Scattered showers/storms are possible mainly along
this front/wind shift boundary as winds become E behind it with
a slight drop in T/Td. CAMs have trended less inland with the
front and now have it stalling through most of the day Tue. As
such, PoPs have increased (mainly across W portions of the FA).
A chance of showers and storms (~30% PoPs) continues across SW/W
portions of the FA Tue night as nearly stationary showers/storms
linger into the night. Upper ridging briefly builds over the
area Tue night-early Wed before moving just to our E by late
Wed. Meanwhile, a rather potent upper trough/low dives SE into
the Great Lakes at the same time. Shortwave energy ahead of
this trough will cross the area late Wed into Wed night,
providing enough forcing for scattered storms to form during
the afternoon and evening (highest PoPs west of I-95). Showers
and storms move E Wed night. A few storms may be strong with
strong winds the main threat. Additionally, WPC has the W
2/3rds of the FA under a marginal ERO for excessive rainfall
both Tue and Wed given slow storm motions. As such, localized
ponding on roadways and urban areas is possible. Highs in the
mid-upper 80s Tue and Wed with lows in the mid to upper 60s Tue
night and upper 60s to lower 70s Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 415 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible on Thursday.

- Drier weather prevails from Friday through the weekend.

A cutoff low likely moves over the Great Lakes by late week
before moving SE into interior New England this weekend. At the
surface, a cold front crosses the area Thu night into Fri. As
such, scattered afternoon storms are again possible on Thu,
with the highest PoPs near the coast as the low-level flow
becomes more westerly and dew points fall a bit. There is some
uncertainty regarding coverage (especially inland)...and areas
west of I-95 may very well be warm and dry on Thu. Convection
moves offshore by Thu night as the cold front ushers in drier
air. Highs Thu in the upper 80s. Dewpoints drop into the 50s for
most of the area (lower 60s near the coast) Fri and Sat with
highs in the lower 80s NW to mid-upper 80s SE Fri and low-mid
80s Sat. Can`t rule out an isolated shower/storm either day
given the upper level low just to the NW of the local area, but
chances are low. There is a slightly better chance for a shower
or storm Sun afternoon (25-30% NW) with highs in the mid 80s.
Chances become low once again on Mon (~15-20%) with highs in
the low- mid 80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Monday...

Primarily VFR conditions are expected to continue through the 6z
taf period. Isolated light showers/sprinkles will continue to be
possible through tonight and into Mon morning, gradually
shifting SE into SE VA/NE NC by Mon morning. However, coverage
is too low to use more than VCSH in the tafs. Model guidance
does show some MVFR CIGs in S central VA late tonight into Mon
morning, however, these lower CIGs are expected to remain away
from the local terminals. Scattered storms are expected to
develop Mon afternoon before tapering off Mon evening. Locally
IFR VIS and perhaps MVFR CIGs are possible with any storms. That
being said, timing and coverage on CAMs don`t provide enough
confidence to narrow down the timeframe at this time. As such,
have VCTS for all terminals this afternoon with the best chance
at RIC/ORF/PHF. Additionally, some model guidance is now showing
the potential for patchy fog and/or IFR CIGs in the Piedmont Mon
night (perhaps making it to RIC). Otherwise, winds were
generally SSW ~5 kt tonight. Winds become SW and increase to
5-10 kt Mon, becoming variable at RIC and W at SBY in the
afternoon. Winds become light and variable Mon night.

Tue looks mostly dry at the terminals with isolated to
scattered showers and storms possible across the Piedmont.
Otherwise, additional afternoon/evening tstms are possible on
Wed/Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Prevailing sub-SCA conditions forecast through Wednesday.

-Daily chances for storms over the waters.

Southwesterly winds are slightly elevated early this morning as a
shortwave pushes through the area. Speeds are currently 12-16kt with
gusts up to 20kt in a few locations. Guidance indicates that these
gusts will subside in the next few hours and return to 5-10kt for
the remainder of the day. Moisture has returned to the local area,
so expect a chance for storms this afternoon. Some storms will be
capable of producing localized higher winds and waves (this will be
handled with SMWs if necessary). This chance of showers and storms
will persist each day into at least late this week as shortwaves and
fronts continue to push through ahead of a potent upper level low
pressure system slowly trekking eastward along the Canadian border.
Outside from thunderstorms, the main "threat" to the marine forecast
would be a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday - southwesterly
winds are forecast to increase to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt
possible. The stronger winds currently look to occur over the
coastal waters. Speeds will subside Friday and into the weekend.

Seas are 2-3ft across the north early this morning, but are expected
to become 1-2ft along with the southern coastal waters by mid-day.
Waves in the Bay will remain around 1-2ft today  through mid-week.
Seas will eventually become 3-4ft, especially across the northern
waters, late Wednesday into Thursday. A low risk of rip currents is
expected at all local beaches today and Tuesday. The risk may
increase to moderate or high Wednesday and Thursday with nearshore
waves increasing to 3ft, with the highest threat across the northern
beaches where the wind and swell will be oriented more shore-
normal.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

Some nuisance coastal flooding is looking likely to occur during the
high tide cycle Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Most tidal
sites will likely be impacted by this. Locations in the northern
Bay, such as Bishops Head, may bump into minor flood stage. The
following high tide cycle Wednesday night/early Thursday morning may
bring similar impacts as well.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...