-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
730
FXUS61 KBGM 230016
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
816 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. This front is slow to move through and
will support additional showers and storms on Thursday. There
will be a brief break Friday before the next system brings
another round of showers and storms to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
645 PM Update...

Some thunderstorms remain present but the severe threat has
diminished across CNY. The watch was cancelled for all NY
counties, but does remain for the counties that it was issued
for in NEPA. Another line of storms has swept across PA and is
now moving into the region. PoPs were updated based on current
radar activity. The CAMs are still struggling but the HREF, NBM,
and some manual edits seemed to come up with a reasonable
solution over the next few hours.

Temperatures have cooled significantly after the storms passed
through. Most are now in the 70s. Hourly temps and dewpts were
touched up to better reflect the latest observations. The rest
of the forecast was doing well and needed little change at this
time.

320 PM Update...

A pre-frontal trough has kicked off scattered showers and storms
just west of the region. Some pop-up convection has been brief in
the region. Instability and shear will likely increase as the cap
continues to erode throughout the afternoon. This would leave the
door open for isolated to scattered severe storms with wind being
the main threat. The uncertainty lies with the shear, which is only
modeled at 20 to 25 kts. This may be just enough to for severe
storms but they should be relatively short-lived. With CAMs not
handling this situation well, PoPs were made to be a ahead of the
timing shown in guidance. Despite having uncertainty with this messy
situation, a watch was issued based on earlier activity seen further
west and the potential for additional severe storms based on higher
surface-based instability.

By the late evening hours, the potential for severe storms will
diminish. The delayed cold front will move into the region from the
northwest tonight. This boundary will kick off additional scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms. With the added moisture, light
winds, and fairly low dew point depressions, patchy valley fog may
develop. In other areas, low stratus may also be possible.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s tonight.

With the front stretched across the southern portions of the region
by Thursday morning, a weak disturbance will ride this front. This
will help keep showers going across portions of NEPA and the
Catskills through most of the morning hours. Thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out as instability and shear will also be present. High
pressure builds in behind this frontal boundary, leading to a quiet,
partly cloudy afternoon across the region. The cold front brings
relief from the heat we have seen the last couple of days highs will
only be in mid 70s to low 80s. Dry conditions will continue
overnight with temps falling into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM Update...

Friday and Friday night will be a dry period as showers stay
south of the area with the front and north of the area with the
upper level low. A ridge of high pressure moves east through
the area Friday night. Humidity drops with dewpoint temperatures
falling to around 50. Skies will be mostly sunny Friday.

On Saturday clouds and pops will increase as a north to south
front moves through Saturday evening. Showers and thunderstorms
will be ahead of and with the front. The trend has been to slow
this down so many places may have a dry morning.

For temperatures lows will be in the 50s Friday night, then rise
to the mid and upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday night. High
temperatures Friday will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s then
a degree or two warmer Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
215 PM Update...

High pressure should build in late Saturday night into Sunday.
Sunday afternoon some models have isolated showers and
thunderstorms over NEPA and the southern Catskills associated
with a stalled front near the coast.

Surface low pressure and associated fronts will move east into
the area late Sunday night into Monday evening. Again another
round of showers and thunderstorms is likely. The surface low
by Tuesday is in southeast Canada, but a large upper level
trough is over southeast Canada and the Great Lakes. The colder
air will set off mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures on Sunday again in the upper 70s and lower
80s, fall slowly to the 60s Wednesday. Lows Sunday night in the
upper 50s and lower 60s fall to the upper 40s to mid 50s Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Showers and thunderstorms will push through NEPA in the next
couple of hours, with brief restrictions and gusty winds likely
at AVP through 01Z. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail
through most of the night. Additional showers and thunderstorms
are possible in the predawn hours, perhaps as far north as the
Southern Tier of NY. This will be accompanied by a period of
MVFR ceilings across the region.

Showers and thunderstorms will push east of all terminals early
Thursday morning, with VFR conditions prevailing through the
day.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BTL/MPH