-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
988
FXUS61 KBGM 220732
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
332 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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A cold frontal boundary will bring some showers and
thunderstorms later today into Thursday across the region. A
brief break is possible Friday before the front comes northward
this weekend with more chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Another frontal boundary and low pressure system continues the
chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week as well.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

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High pressure that has been over our region the past few days will
continue to shift further offshore and give way to an
approaching pre frontal trough. Continued light southwesterly
flow will allow for one more summer like day across the region
with highs well into the 80`s and even a few locations hitting
90. Right now we are forecasting a tie of the record high at
Binghamton of 86 with Scranton and Syracuse falling short of
record values.

Modeling is in excellent agreement that the pre frontal trough will
be a lifting agent for the development of a round of showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. We have been able to
hone in on the timing a little better compared to yesterday.
The main cluster of showers and thunderstorms should enter
portions of the Finger Lakes around 5 pm then shift into the
I-81 corridor around 7pm and then clear the region by late
evening.

We are still looking at a fairly robust environment for strong
to perhaps severe storms with steep low and mid-level lapse
rates coupled with 1,000-2,000 J/KG CAPE. Shear continues to be
modeled on the low end of the spectrum but looks sufficient
enough for the storms to organize into clusters with the
potential for small hail and gusty winds. A few storms may
become severe as well depending on how the event unfolds today.

With the eventual cold front working into the region overnight, the
possibilities for a few showers and thunderstorms don`t
completely go away. The cold front eventually checks up just
south of the region on Thursday so enough lift looks present to
keep a chance for some showers and thunderstorms across NE PA
and perhaps into the southern Tier and southern Catskills
regions. Temperatures do trend cooler after the frontal passage
with highs only getting to around 80 after a muggy start in the
60`s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM update...

A cold front will slowly pass through the region Thursday. There
will be enough instability to support thunderstorms, though severe
storms look unlikely at this time. High pressure will bring in drier
air behind this front. Showers and storms will move out of the
region by the evening with dry conditions to follow during the
overnight hours thanks to the high pressure. Dry conditions will
likely persist through at least Friday morning before a weak
shortwave then moves east from the Ohio River Valley late in the
day. This system may bring some showers and storms to portions of
the region late Friday and overnight but there does remain on some
uncertainty on timing and coverage.

Temperatures will not vary much between the two days in this
forecast period as highs will be in the 70s/80s and lows will be in
the 50s/60s. Friday will be the warmer day with highs in the 80s
more widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM update...

The aforementioned shortwave will move through the region Saturday
and will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
morning hours. Then a cold front pushes through with an additional
round for showers/storms for the overnight hours. The second half of
the weekend will be dry as high pressure builds back into the
region. This dry period will be brief as a low pressure system moves
in Sunday night into Monday, though showers and storms look more
probable on Monday. There may be a brief lull on Tuesday but the
next system will not be too far behind. Temperatures will trend
cooler throughout this period with highs going from 70s/80s on
Saturday to 60s/70s by Tuesday. The lows will be in the 50s each
night this period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through most of the TAF period. The main concern will be the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region from 20Z today till roughly 03Z Thursday. Coverage and
timing are still somewhat uncertain so only mentioning some VFR
showers at this time.


Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

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Record highs for Today 5/22

Avoca: 93 in 1911, forecast is 89.
Binghamton: 86 in 1975, forecast is 86.
Syracuse: 92 in 1911, forecast is 91.
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&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL/DK
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG
CLIMATE...