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487
FXUS61 KBGM 240753
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet conditions will persist until Saturday afternoon. Showers
and thunderstorms return late Saturday, but will exit the
region by Sunday. Although Sunday will be dry, another system
will move into the region by Monday, resulting in a wet end to
the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 AM Update...

High pressure will be overhead today with mostly sunny skies and
warm temperatures. However, the dry airmass in place will make
for a cool night tonight. Dropped forecast lows well below NBM
guidance, as clear skies and calm winds should allow for
efficient radiational cooling. This will send low temperatures
into the upper 40s to low 50s most locations. Saturday has
trended drier during most of the daytime hours. A shortwave
moves into Western NY late Saturday afternoon and will bring
showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area by Saturday
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
350 AM update...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be around the
area Saturday night as a frontal boundary crosses the CWA and a
weak upper level shortwave passes by to the north and west. The
convection will be mainly through the first part of the night.
However, with about 30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear and modest
amounts of instability in place, there can be a few robust
showers or thunderstorms during the evening. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be rather mild in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Sunday is expected to be a largely dry day with just a slight
chance (<20%) of a pop up shower or thunderstorm with the
heating of the day and the exiting front still close by to our
southeast. The best chance for anything spotty would be over NE
PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures Sunday are
expected to be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s.

A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected
to lift north toward the area Sunday night while the main area
of low pressure begins to shift from the central Plains to the
Ohio Valley and will continue to trek to the northeast into the
Great Lakes Monday. The warm front can lead to some showers
prior to daybreak Monday, mainly for our southern and western
areas. It will remain mild Sunday night with lows again in the
upper 50s and low 60s.

As the broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes
continues to press to the northeast into SE Canada later Monday,
the warm front will lift north across the CWA drawing up plenty
of warm, moist air from the south as PWAT values range
generally from 1.25-1.75 inches. As a result, widespread showers
are expected to develop with embedded thunderstorms which can
produce locally heavy rainfall. There is still some uncertainty
with regards to the timing of the heaviest rainfall on Memorial
Day, but the best chance looks to be from midday into the
afternoon and early evening. The excessive rainfall outlook from
the WPC currently has the area in a marginal risk (at least 5%)
for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of
a point, with a slight risk just south and east of NE PA and
Sullivan County, so this will be monitored. Monday will not be
as warm with highs from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
350 AM update...

Drier air looks to wrap in behind the departing low pressure
area Monday night which will taper off the shower activity.
However, a broad upper trough is expected to linger over the
region Tuesday through Thursday with a few embedded shortwaves
rotating through along the base of the trough. This will keep
the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers
especially during peak heating hours. Instability is expected to
be pretty limited so the risk for thunder is low during this
time.

With a cool, northwest flow in place much of this time, the
downward trend in temperatures will continue with highs Tuesday
in the upper 60s and low 70s, while Wednesday and Thursday is in
the 60s. Parts of the area Thursday may do no better than the
low 60s. Widespread 40s are expected Wednesday and Thursday
nights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AVP is the only site that has a chance of restrictions this
morning due to fog. Satellite is picking up some valley in the
Wyoming Valley and fog has a chance to move into AVP early this
morning, but confidence is low on how restrictive this fog will
be. Any fog will quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise. Elsewhere,
VFR conditions through the period with high pressure and mostly
clear skies.

Outlook...

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday and Tuesday... Restrictions possible with scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK