-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
878
FXUS61 KBGM 210752
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
352 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the region today will slowly give way to a
cold frontal passage Wednesday and Thursday with a threat of
strong thunderstorms. This front will settle south of the
region giving us a short break Friday before pushing northward
again this weekend with additional chances of showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will move off the east coast gradually through
tonight. This will result in a continued warming trend through
Wednesday with southwesterly winds. Most locations should rise well
into the 80`s with a few locations close to 90 both today and on
Wednesday. With dewpoints only around 60, heat index values should
not be much higher. Lows generally in the 60`s tonight.

The one wrinkle today looks to be a weak mid-level disturbance
moving across central New York this afternoon and evening. Lift and
moisture look fairly limited but enough to spark off isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

After a break in the action early Wednesday a frontal boundary still
looks to move in later Wednesday to break down the ridge. Enough
lift and moisture looks present for at least some scattered showers
with the frontal passage. Instability during the afternoons surface
CAPE is currently modeled to be around 1,500 J/KG. Model soundings
continue to show steep low and even somewhat steep mid level lapse
rates. Some mid-level dry air also looks to be present as well later
Wednesday. 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be on the weaker side
which works against the possibility of strong to severe storms at
only 20-30 knots.

Most modeling does indicate that will be enough shear though for
some thunderstorms to develop during the mid and late afternoon
hours and organize into a few clusters. These clusters of
thunderstorms have the potential for some gusty winds and hail as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
350 AM update...

Scattered showers and potentially a few stronger thunderstorms
are expected to continue into the early evening hours Wednesday
night before becoming more isolated in nature later on with the
loss of daytime heating. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s
and with dew points not much lower than the actual temperature,
it will have a little bit of a muggy feel to it. The cold front
responsible for the convection late Wednesday will stall out
across NE PA and the southern Catskills Thursday. A weak surface
low will move northeast along the boundary aiding in the
development of additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
with the convection most concentrated near the boundary. Dew
points in this area will reach the mid 60s and shear values look
decent, but CAPE and mid-level lapse rates are not as high
compared to late Wednesday/Wednesday evening. Highs Thursday
will be generally in the 70s, but near 80 degrees in the Wyoming
Valley and southern Sullivan County.

Cooler, drier air will filter in Thursday night and skies will
be clearing out as surface high pressure builds in. Lows
Thursday night will fall back into the 50s. Friday looks largely
dry with some sunshine and a comfortably warm afternoon with
dew points in the 50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s to the
low 80s in some valley locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
350 AM update...

Later Friday night through Saturday features a low chance
(25%-40%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms as a upper level
shortwave lifts northeastward toward our area. Some additional
moisture may try to stream in from the north from a broad
shortwave trough that is expected to pass by to our north and
west. Sunday looks dry before an area of low pressure and
associated cold front brings the chance for showers and
thunderstorms back into the area Monday. Highs Saturday and
Sunday are expected to be in the 70s with lows in the 50s at
night. Monday`s highs look to be a little lower from the upper
60s into the low and mid 70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. There is
a small chance for fog briefly at ELM from 06-13Z today.
However, at this time it does not appear ELM will reach
crossover temperature, so left fog out of the forecast for now.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible. Also isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms around.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK/MWG