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393
FXUS61 KBGM 201927
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
327 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A warm, early summer weather pattern will be over the region
through Wednesday. Chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms gradually increase, especially by late Wednesday
and Thursday. The weather looks to turn mainly dry and
seasonably warm for Friday into the upcoming Memorial Day
Weekend, although a scattered shower can`t be ruled out.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

Some cumulus clouds are developing this afternoon, with MLCAPE
reaching 600-1200 J/Kg over the forecast area and LIs down
around -3. An inhibiting factor is the weak mid level lapse
rates around 6C/km and low level dry air, with sfc Tds only in
the mid-50s to lower 60s. CAMs such as the 12z 3km NAM and HRRR
continue to show an isolated storm or two popping up over the
western Finger Lakes and/or Central southern tier region heading
into the early evening hours. With light winds through the
column and basically no deep layer shear, any storms that do pop
up will be pulse type and shouldn`t last very long or become
organized. The weather turns quiet overnight, with some patchy
fog possible...mainly in the valleys. Mild with lows in the
upper 50s to 60s.

Tuesday starts off quiet in the morning, with mostly sunny
skies. A weak wave rides over the top of the ridge in the
afternoon, which could spark off a few showers and t`storms. The
main timing for these looks to be about 2 PM to 9 PM. Mixed
Layer instability will reach 800-1200 J/Kg with deep layer shear
increasing a bit...upwards of 20-30 kts. SPC is carrying a
marginal risk for severe hail and wind just to the north of our
CWA for the afternoon and evening hours...so we will need to
keep a close eye on any storms that do form over Central NY and
the Mohawk Valley region. Otherwise, outside of the convective
activity it will be partly to mostly sunny and hot, with highs
in the mid-80s to low 90s over the region.Leaned toward the
bias corrected guidance and NBM25-50th percentile, which was a
bit higher than the Operational NBM...as that seemed too low
based recent trends. Dew points are in the upper 50s to low 60s,
so it won`t feel overly humid.

After any lingering evening convection, Tuesday night is quiet
and warm once again, under partly cloudy skies. Temperatures
hold in the 60s areawide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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3 PM update...

A cold front in Michigan Wednesday morning will move southeast
through CNY Wednesday night, then stalls in PA Thursday. The front
will have warm humid air to work with ahead of the front. With the
front getting here late in the day with increasing clouds,
temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 80s and around 90 in
Syracuse. Dewpoint temperatures will be in the low and mid 60s.
CAPE is still forecasted to be 1k or a little higher. The CAPE
is tall and skinny but better than Tuesday. Mid level lapse
rates are good. Shear is weak at 20 to 25 kts. Low level winds
remain light but the upper level jet approaches northern NY. SPC
has the NW half of CNY in a marginal chance of severe
thunderstorms. Wind is the most likely threat. Late Wednesday
into Wednesday night the convection moves through. Low
temperatures will be in the 60s.

Thursday the front stalls in northern PA as a weak surface low
moves east. Most of the showers and thunderstorms move southeast
out of the area late Thursday. Some of the thunderstorms could
be strong again. CAPE is lower but shear is higher. Highs range
mostly in the 70s but around 80 in the Wyoming Valley. Thursday
night with cold air advection and clearing skies lows will be in
the 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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3 PM update...

Friday into Saturday now looks dry as the front sags south. A
ridge of high pressure builds in from the northwest. Models are
trending drier for the weekend. Low chance pops for NEPA and
Sullivan County NY Saturday afternoon and night. A front moving
east from the upper Midwest looks slower and may wait until
Monday to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms here. This
front is ahead of an upper level trough.

Highs mostly in the 70s Friday and Saturday will fall into the
upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday. Lows Friday night will
be from the mid 40s to the lower 50. Lows rise into the 50s
Saturday night and Sunday night.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for just about
all of our TAF sites over the next 24 hours. ELM may see a short
period of fog or mist; mainly between 08-12z early Tuesday
morning. Exact extent and vsby reduction is still uncertain at
this time, but for now, limited it to MVFR restrictions here.

Otherwise, expect a mix of FEW/SCT mid level cumulus and high
thin cirrus clouds out there through this taf period. Winds are
light, and variable with a diurnal component...under 10 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible. Also isolated to scattered
afternoon and evening thunderstorms around.

Friday and Saturday...VFR expected. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...MJM