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194
FXUS61 KCAR 251319
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
919 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the area today then slide east of
the region on Sunday. Low pressure will approach Sunday night
and track northwest of the region Monday into Tuesday. Upper
level low pressure will move over the area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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919AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this update.

Previous Discussion...
A thin ridge of high pressure will bring a partly sunny sky and
seasonable temperatures today. The morning will begin with some
stratocumulus over the north. As the air near the surface
warms, this moisture will translate into a field of fair weather
cumulus clouds around 5K ft high bringing a partly cloudy sky
over the north and a clear to partly cloudy sky across southern
areas. The cumulus clouds will dissipate early this evening
bringing a clear evening followed by some patchy mid and upper
clouds late tonight as a weak upper level shortwave moves in.
This may bring some spotty showers over southern areas late
tonight. The calm, clear to partly cloudy conditions tonight
will allow the air to cool into the 40s north and near 50
Downeast tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A quiet stretch of weather through Monday. A weak shortwave is
expected to pass just south of the area Sunday morning and could
touch off a passing shower, mainly along and near the coast, and
across eastern sections of the FA. Otherwise, Sunday is
expected to be partly sunny and seasonable with light wind.
Highs will mostly be in the upper 60s to low 70s, but cooler for
areas along the coast.

Dry and seasonable for Sunday night as surface ridging extends from
the Maritimes and into Maine. The ridging shifts east Monday
with increasing flow out of the south. A warm front will develop
to our west as low pressure moves out of the Great Lakes and
into Ontario. Clouds will increase along with an increasing
south wind. This will keep temperatures a bit cooler than
Sunday, but the good news is that the majority Memorial Day
remains dry with just the chance of an afternoon shower across
mainly western portions of the FA. Highs are not expected to
get out of the 60s inland, but with the south flow it will be a
cool day along the coat with highs not getting out of the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The best chance of wet weather and steadier rain is Monday
night into Tuesday morning as a warm front lifts north of the
area Monday night and is followed by an occluded front Tuesday
morning. Steadier precipitation should taper to scattered
showers by around midday Tuesday from south to north. There is
the potential for a half and inch to an inch of rain with the
best chance of the higher totals across the northern half of the
FA. Will go with a more stratiform rain for Monday night into
Tuesday morning to be followed by scattered showers.

The region will be under the influence of an upper trough for
Wednesday through Friday.  This will produce showers at times with
the best chance perhaps coming Wednesday afternoon and evening when
what appears to be a stronger shortwave moves through the mean
upper trough. Highs will likely be mostly in the 60s each day,
but could get into the lower 70s inland on Wednesday. Clouds
will likely keep the threat of any frost minimal next week with
lows mostly in the 40s. After the rain Monday night will keep
all of the wording as showers, although will need to watch for a
period of steadier rain later Wednesday into Wednesday night.
The operational models do offer up fairly significant
differences in the timing and intensity of shortwaves under the
mean upper trough, so forecaster confidence is overall below
average, but above average that there will not be any hot
weather. Chances of severe weather generally appear low given
the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected across the area today and
tonight with some cumulus around 5K ft today followed by a clear
to partly cloudy night tonight. Winds will be NW around 10
tonight then light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:
Sun: VFR, except possible MVFR in the morning at KBGR and KBHB
in showers. E/SE wind around 5 knots.

Sunday night and Monday: VFR with SE wind around 5 knots,
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with a few higher gusts Monday
afternoon.

Monday night and Tuesday: Conditions lower to IFR in rain and
patchy fog. Improvement to MVFR possible by Tuesday afternoon.
S/SE wind 10 to 20 knots and gusty, shifting SW and diminishing
to 5 to 10 knots Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: MVFR to VFR with scattered
showers. Patchy fog possible Tuesday night with local IFR.
SW wind 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will be below SCA today and tonight
with good visibility expected.

SHORT TERM: The wind and seas are expected to remain below small craft
advisory levels through Monday. A southeast wind will begin to
increase Monday afternoon along with slowly building seas. A
small craft advisory might be required by Monday night and
Tuesday for wind, and especially building seas on the coastal
waters. The wind and seas are expected to be below small craft
advisory levels Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash
Short Term...CB
Long Term...CB
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/CB
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/CB