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258
FXUS61 KCLE 252018
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
418 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will continue across the area this evening and high
pressure will build behind the front for tonight into Sunday. A
low pressure system will target the area for Sunday night into
Monday and a stronger cold front will cross the region by Monday
evening.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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For the next several hours, there will be a window for some
additional showers and storm development across northern (mostly
interior NE Ohio), as boundary descends south from Lake Erie and
the area remains conditionally unstable ahead of a cold front.
Over the last hour or so, the cumulus field has developed more
aggressively south of Cleveland and some returns are starting to
appear on the radar scope. Movement of any convection will be
east to east-southeast at about 15-20 mph. As for the severe
potential with any convection, it is limited but non-zero. Some
rounds of showers and storms earlier did stabilize portions of
NE OH and NW PA, but some areas of interior NE OH have been able
to recover with temperatures in the lower 80s and MLCAPE of 1500
J/kg and generally supportive low-level lapse rates and the
southeast counties of the forecast area will need to be
monitored for strong to severe storms through sunset.

A cold front will move through tonight with high pressure
immediately behind it that will settle in through the first part
of Sunday. Skies will generally clear but some high clouds may
roam about. Where clear conditions persist and where it rained
today, there will be some light fog potential but nothing
widespread, dense. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s. Highs
on Sunday will be in the 80s with mid-to-high clouds filtering
in.

For Sunday afternoon and night, a low pressure system will
approach the region and there is potential for multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms, but confidence is low at this time
on the overall setup, especially with storm timing and strength,
as it will be largely dependent on upstream development tonight
into tomorrow. Overall, there appears to be some consensus on a
line of showers and storms moving into the region tomorrow
afternoon and evening, but these storms will be on a decaying
trend as they will be entering a more dry and stable environment
with the high pressure system to the north. Therefore, these
storms will be running out of steam and may not even make it to
Findlay, or if they do, they may lack a bite to them. Another
round of storms should develop closer to the low and move toward
the area during the overnight hours on Sunday night. Again,
these storms may be entering into a more marginally supportive
environment and at a time that would be less diurnally
favorable. There seems to be better consensus that there would
be at least some rain moving through the region Sunday night.
However, both phases require more identification on features
that develop tonight into tomorrow to have more confidence at
this time.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Surface low pressure will move across the Great Lakes region while
dragging a cold front eastward across Northern Ohio on Monday.
Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will move across the
region Sunday night through the day Monday. Can`t rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm along and east of I-71 where MLCAPE
values approach the 1000-1500 J/kg range accompanied by 0-6km bulk
shear between 25-30 knots. As such, the Storm Prediction Center has
a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) for severe weather across the eastern
two-thirds of our forecast area in their Day 3 Severe Weather
Outlook. In addition to strong to severe storms on Monday, there is
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding with any
training storms. Layer PWATs rise into the 1.5-1.75 inch range which
is above the 75th percentile when compared to KPIT sounding
climatology.

The bulk of the showers and storms will exit to the east Monday
night as the front exits our area. A reinforcing cold front will
swing southeast during the day Tuesday. The upper trough will
circulate overhead through the short term period with multiple
shortwave disturbances moving across the Ohio Valley. This will
allow for unsettled weather with multiple rounds of showers and
storms to persist into the middle of the week.

High temperatures in the mid to upper 70s ahead of the cold front on
Monday. Overnight lows Monday night settle in the lower 50s Monday
night. Slightly cooler on Tuesday with highs in the mid 60s to near
70 degrees with overnight lows in the upper 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The upper trough will continue to pivot overhead with another
shortwave swinging southeastward across the region on Wednesday.
High pressure will build overhead from the west and allow for the
upper trough to exit east. This high will remain overhead through
the end of the long term period and will give way to a few days of
dry weather. Temperatures through the long term will gradually
climb, starting with highs in the low/mid 70s Tuesday ending in the
low/mid 80s Friday and Saturday.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Some scattered TS continue across eastern OH into western PA and
coverage should avoid all terminals except KYNG over the next
hour or so. Some additional showers and storms may develop
across portions of northern Ohio later this afternoon and some
TS could be in and around KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG again for a brief
time. However, if new convection doesn`t initiate in the next
2-3 hours, then the threat may end up being done for the day.
The surface cold front will swing through later this evening and
high pressure will build from the north, allowing for dry
conditions and just some high clouds to be a problem for the
region through Sunday afternoon. With the convection today, some
fog is possible in NE OH and NW PA and have mentioned it in the
KERI TAF, but future expansion to the KYNG and KCAK TAFs are
possible depending on cloud coverage tonight. Winds will be west
to start with gusts in NW OH and will become light overnight
with high pressure. Flow will settle on an east to northeast
flow to start on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Sunday
evening into Monday. Periodic Non-VFR conditions may persist in
scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
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High pressure briefly builds overhead behind the passing cold front
overnight tonight through early Sunday. Low pressure centered over
the Great Plains moves northeast toward the Eastern Great Lakes. As
this system enters the region, it will lift a warm front north
across Lake Erie on Sunday night followed by a cold front during the
day Monday.

Generally light northwest winds tonight turn east while increasing
to 10-15 knots by Sunday afternoon. As the warm front lifts north,
winds become southerly at 15-20 knots Monday morning then westerly
behind the cold front by Monday evening. Generally westerly winds at
15-20 knots will persist through Wednesday before high pressure
builds overhead from the north and shifts winds northerly at 10-15
knots. As the high continues to build overhead, expect for wind
speeds to decrease below 10 knots through the end of the week.

Still keeping an eye on a potential small craft advisory issuance
Monday night into Tuesday as wave heights will build to 3-6 feet at
nearshore zones east of The Islands. As winds shift onshore
Wednesday into Thursday, there may be an increased likelihood for
rip currents.
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&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Iverson