-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
796
FXUS61 KCLE 271046
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
646 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure centered over Lake Michigan will continue to move
northeast today, moving a cold front east across the area.
Additional weak cold front will move east tonight and Tuesday night
before high pressure builds in for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 AM Update...
Showers are currently making their way across the area, but no
thunder has been reported this morning as instability remains
very low. Not expecting much thunder to develop this morning
ahead of the cold front, but cannot rule out a rumble or two.
Overall, no changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
This morning, a low pressure system centered near Lake Michigan has
left the entire area in the warm sector with storms continuing to
develop to the south-southwest of the area. These showers and
thunderstorms will gradually move northeast through this morning as
the associated cold front pushes east. There severe threat this
morning is fairly minimal with little mesoscale support available to
sustain any convection. With that being said, models suggest 800-
1000 J/kg of DCAPE over the area which will aid in winds mixing down
to the surface even in simple rain showers. Gusty winds will remain
the primary threat with localized gusts of 30-35 mph possible in the
strongest storms with heavy rainfall, but overall impact continues
to look minimal.

Starting mid morning, showers should begin to taper from west to
east as the aforementioned cold front moves east, allowing for a
primarily dry Memorial Day for much of the area except far northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania where shower potential will linger
into the evening. In addition, synoptic winds are expected to ramp
up with the cold frontal passage with westerly sustained winds of 15-
20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph. After sunset, winds will calm to 5-10
mph and persist through the night. High temperatures today will be
in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, except along the I75
corridor where highs will only climb into the mid to upper 60s due
to the cold front moving east. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s.

On Tuesday, the aforementioned low will be centered over Quebec and
extend another, although weak, cold front southwest across the area.
This boundary couple with the associated upper level shortwave that
will move east across the area, will result in an additional chance
for showers and thunderstorms across the area. With the generally
weak set-up, not expecting severe weather Tuesday, but cannot rule
out locally heavy rainfall with the strongest showers/storms. Highs
on Tuesday will reach into the low 70s along the I75 corridor, but
linger in the mid to upper 60s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cyclonic flow both at the surface and aloft will push a series of
shortwaves and troughs across the area Tuesday night through the
daytime hours Wednesday. Scattered showers (possibly lake-enhanced
as 850mb temps drop to 5-7C) are likely during this time and can`t
rule out a few thunderstorms during peak heating Wednesday
afternoon. Although upper troughing will persist across eastern
zones into Thursday, surface high pressure building in from the
north/northwest will push a surge of dry air into the area Wednesday
evening. Dry weather should return no later than Wednesday night and
persist through the remainder of the short term period.

Cold air advection due to northwest flow will provide slightly below
normal temperatures through Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
areawide Wednesday with mid 60s to low 70s anticipated by Thursday.
The cooler temperatures will be a bit more noticeable overnight;
Tuesday night`s lows will be in the low to mid 50s, but temps
Wednesday and Thursday night will likely drop into the low to mid
40s with lower 50s more likely along the lakeshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will remain in place through the majority of the long
term period as a ridge builds east over the Midwest.
Shower/thunderstorm chances may return as early as Sunday or Monday
as southwesterly flow returns in response to the high shifting east
and the ridge axis pushes east of the CWA or the ridge flattens out.
Some long range guidance is hinting at a shortwave crossing the area
at some point late this weekend or early next week, but still far
too much uncertainty to have PoPs greater than slight chance to low-
end chance (~20-30%).

The high will allow temps to gradually moderate throughout the
period and temps will likely be above normal due to warm air
advection Sunday and Monday. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low
to mid 70s Friday, but anticipate highs in the upper 70s to low to
mid 80s by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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A cold front extending south near the OH/IN border will continue
to gradually move east today. Ahead of this boundary, showers
continue to move across the area, but with limited instability
there has not been any thunder reported. These showers will
gradually diminish from west to east late this morning into the
early afternoon hours, but diminished ceilings may stick around
for a bit. Currently, a mix bag of VFR to IFR ceilings are being
observed across the area with widespread MVFR reported upstream.
With these observations and model guidance suggesting at least
MVFR into the early afternoon hours, opted to keep conditions at
least MVFR before improving to low end VFR this
afternoon/evening. Confidence in timing of this transition is
low, but generally had it occur between 18-22Z. VFR conditions
will again diminish tonight as another frontal boundary
approaches the area.

In addition to diminished ceilings, winds will become quite
gusty along and behind the cold front with winds shifting to
become westerly. Along and west of I-77 this afternoon, winds
will increase to 13-17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible.
Across the eastern terminals, sustained winds will reach
between 10-13 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. After sunset,
westerly winds will weaken to 5-10 knots, except at KERI where
they will remain elevated closer to 12-15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual
showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non-
VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will lift across Lake Huron today and into southern
Quebec by this evening, sweeping a cold front east across Lake Erie
throughout the day today. Winds and waves have trended higher and
expect southwest winds to increase to 15 to 20 knots by mid to late
morning before increasing to 20 to 30 knots and becoming westerly
behind the front this afternoon into this evening. Winds should
gradually diminish to 20 to 25 knots, but expect winds to around 20
knots through Tuesday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories and Beach
Hazards Statements are in effect starting late this morning into
Tuesday afternoon/early evening. The strong west/southwest flow will
likely cause water levels in the western basin to below the critical
mark of 19 inches above low water datum for a few hours this
afternoon into this evening and a Low Water Advisory has been issued
from 18Z/2 PM until 03Z/11 PM today.

Northwest winds will gradually diminish to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday
night into Wednesday before winds once again increase to 15 to 20
knots primarily in the central basin so another (albeit brief) round
of headlines will likely be needed until winds diminish to 15 knots
or less Wednesday night. Similar flow will continue through Friday
morning before winds become a bit lighter and more variable by
Friday afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     late tonight for OHZ003-007.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Tuesday afternoon for OHZ009-010.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday evening for OHZ011-012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     Tuesday evening for PAZ001.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ142-143.
     Low Water Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
     Tuesday for LEZ146>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Maines