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865
FXUS63 KDTX 301727
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
127 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Another clear and chilly night ahead with lows near 40 outside of
metro Detroit, and in the upper 30s in rural or sheltered locations.

- Dry weather continues Friday and most of Saturday with a gradual
warming trend each day.

- The next chance of rain arrives late Saturday through Saturday
night.

- The weekend finishes dry and warm Sunday with highs near 80.
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&&

.AVIATION...

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High pressure centered over the Door Peninsula of Wisconsin
maintains effectively clear skies and weak flow across the terminals
for the rest of today and overnight. Meager moisture within the 4.5-
6.0 kft AGL layer that supported areas of FEW cumulus this morning
will continue to struggle as active subsidence further dries the
column this afternoon. Light northerly winds veer toward the
northeast with time as the center of the ridge translates eastward
across Lower Michigan. Nocturnal winds then trend toward calm late
tonight and early Friday morning before becoming southerly midday
Friday. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the end of
the TAF period.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this
forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

DISCUSSION...

Quiet weather to wrap up the month of May as surface high pressure
settles across the region. Upper level trough and cold pool is
lingering today which helped lows dip down to around 40 (with a few
upper 30) early this morning under clear skies and light winds. For
today even with the back edge of the thermal trough still working
out of the area, heights will be slowly increasing under full sun
which will help rebound temps nicely and produce highs around 70, a
couple degrees over yesterdays highs. Continued modification of the
local airmass Friday as the surface high centers over the Great
Lakes but the amplified upper level ridge still holds the thermal
ridge axis just to our west. So temps should increase a few more
degrees getting us back into the mid/upper 70s.

Saturday will start off pleasant as the ridge axis will pass to the
east Friday night opening the door for deep layer southwesterly flow
into the region. The next chance of rain comes later that afternoon
as a decent southern stream mid level wave, getting better organized
in latest runs, lifts northeast out of the southern Plains through
the Midwest while attempting to phase into the stronger northern
stream trough crossing south-central Canada. Currently there isn`t
much instability offered in the sounding due to a very moist profile
with PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches, but a sharp theta e gradient with
the surface low and southern extension of the northern stream trough
should offer a good shot at rain across most of the area through the
evening and into the overnight.

Energetic northern stream and weak southern stream will then offer
up a zonal, or low amplitude progressive pattern heading into and
through next week. Sunday and Monday may end up dry but the mid week
period will provide several opportunities for precipitation with a
front moving into the area Tuesday, a stronger wave following on
Wednesday, then cold advection Thursday with additional troughs
rotating around the low as it moves just east of the area.

MARINE...

High pressure is firmly in place today, centered over the western
Great Lakes, maintaining generally lighter flow (aob 15kts) across
the central lakes. The Bay and far southern basin of Huron could
push 20kts owing to the longer northerly fetch however subsequent
waves are expected to hold sub small craft criteria around the Thumb
nearshore waters. Surface high drifts directly over the central
Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday maintaining dry conditions
and light southerly winds. Next chances for unsettled weather arrive
latter half of the day Saturday as low pressure lifting into
northern Ontario drags a cold front through the Great Lakes.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK


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