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420
FXUS63 KDTX 300753
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Dry weather and a gradual warming trend today through early Saturday.

- The next chance of rain is late Saturday and Saturday night.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Quiet weather to wrap up the month of May as surface high pressure
settles across the region. Upper level trough and cold pool is
lingering today which helped lows dip down to around 40 (with a few
upper 30) early this morning under clear skies and light winds. For
today even with the back edge of the thermal trough still working
out of the area, heights will be slowly increasing under full sun
which will help rebound temps nicely and produce highs around 70, a
couple degrees over yesterdays highs. Continued modification of the
local airmass Friday as the surface high centers over the Great
Lakes but the amplified upper level ridge still holds the thermal
ridge axis just to our west. So temps should increase a few more
degrees getting us back into the mid/upper 70s.

Saturday will start off pleasant as the ridge axis will pass to the
east Friday night opening the door for deep layer southwesterly flow
into the region. The next chance of rain comes later that afternoon
as a decent southern stream mid level wave, getting better organized
in latest runs, lifts northeast out of the southern Plains through
the Midwest while attempting to phase into the stronger northern
stream trough crossing south-central Canada. Currently there isn`t
much instability offered in the sounding due to a very moist profile
with PWATs exceeding 1.5 inches, but a sharp theta e gradient with
the surface low and southern extension of the northern stream trough
should offer a good shot at rain across most of the area through the
evening and into the overnight.

Energetic northern stream and weak southern stream will then offer
up a zonal, or low amplitude progressive pattern heading into and
through next week. Sunday and Monday may end up dry but the mid week
period will provide several opportunities for precipitation with a
front moving into the area Tuesday, a stronger wave following on
Wednesday, then cold advection Thursday with additional troughs
rotating around the low as it moves just east of the area.
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&&

.MARINE...

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High pressure is firmly in place today, centered over the western
Great Lakes, maintaining generally lighter flow (aob 15kts) across
the central lakes. The Bay and far southern basin of Huron could
push 20kts owing to the longer northerly fetch however subsequent
waves are expected to hold sub small craft criteria around the Thumb
nearshore waters. Surface high drifts directly over the central
Great Lakes Friday into early Saturday maintaining dry conditions
and light southerly winds. Next chances for unsettled weather arrive
latter half of the day Saturday as low pressure lifting into
northern Ontario drags a cold front through the Great Lakes.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period as high pressure
moves over Michigan today. Just enough moisture availability during
peak heating this afternoon may generate sparse cumulus at around
6kft. Winds will hold mostly below 10 knots through today as winds
orient more east to northeast later in the evening with the passing
of the high pressure. Skies expected to remain mostly clear tonight.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this
forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.
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&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....AA


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