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084
FXUS64 KFWD 260711
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
211 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... 
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/NEW/
/The Remainder Of The Holiday Weekend/

After a busy evening with a long track supercell over our far
northern counties, we now await more storms now forming in an area
of high instability(particularly aloft) and strong westerly
shear across West-Central Texas associated with the next shortwave
disturbance aloft. These storms will be able to produce large
hail and some gusty winds as we move into the predawn hours and
sunrise across primarily western Central Texas. This activity
could move as far north as the DFW Metroplex by dawn if the NAM12
is accurate, which right now it`s handling the current storms
better than the rest. These storms will weaken and dissipate by
mid morning as subsidence behind the wave and the loss of strong
low level southerly flow just above the surface wanes. Otherwise,
a hot day with well above normal temperatures are expected as low
level winds from the surface through 925mb veer southwesterly but
remain breezy through afternoon with strong downslope for much of
the area. Drier air intruding into areas west of I-35 will push
highs into the upper 90s which will push record highs for the
date. Further east into the more humid airmass, highs will still
reach the lower-mid 90s. Heat indices across much of eastern
Central Texas from I-35 to the Trinity River Valley will see heat
index values reach to between 105-110 degrees both this afternoon
and Monday afternoon as well. I added Hill, Navarro, and Henderson
counties on the north side of the previous advisory, as highs
remain in the lower-mid 90s with tropical-like humidity
continuing.

Brief shortwave ridging should take hold tonight into Monday
keeping the area precipitation/storm-free with patchy fog across
our East Texas areas early in the morning. Lows tonight will range
from the mid 60s west through north of DFW in the "storm outflow-
washed" airmass, with unaffected areas further to the southeast
only falling into the lower-mid 70s. Winds will be quite breezy
again this evening before a brief backdoor front helped by storm
outflow to the E-NE of the area helping to knock winds down and
from the NE at 5-10 mph across North Texas and S at 5 to 10 mph
across Central Texas.

05/Marty
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&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024/
/Memorial Day and Beyond/

By 00Z Monday (Sunday night), the cold front associated with the
shortwave moving across the Central Plains will still be lagging
well behind the associated surface low located near the Great
Lakes. This front, extending from the Upper Midwest into North
Texas, is projected to push south of the Red River early Monday
morning. With mid-level ascent mostly displaced well to the
northeast, forcing for ascent will generally be limited to the
surface boundary(ies). 12Z guidance continues to favor a
precipitation-free Memorial Day holiday (NBM PoPs < 10%), at least
until after dark. By the Monday evening, isentropic lift over the
shallow front in addition to ongoing warm air advection may lead
to some chances for showers and a few elevated thunderstorms. We
will also need to monitor any convection developing along the
dryline, which will likely have retreated west towards the Edwards
Plateau as moisture advection continues ahead of the boundary. We
have maintained the low (20% or less) chance for showers and
thunderstorms across Central Texas (generally south of I-20) after
midnight.

Consolidation of an expanding mid-level ridge over the
Intermountain West and the subtropical high over Mexico combined
with troughing over the Great Lakes and Appalachians will result
in northwest flow aloft across the Plains. Ridge-topping
perturbations/shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft in conjunction
with the sharpening dryline to the west and lingering frontal
boundary across Central Texas should provide sufficient forcing
for daily rain/storm chances. This pattern will support rounds of
thunderstorms developing initially over the higher terrain to our
west and northwest during the afternoon and evening tracking south
and east into North and Central Texas overnight and into the
daytime hours. The first shortwave is currently progged to arrive
Tuesday night into Wednesday with additional waves arriving
nightly through the end of the week. Forecast soundings indicate
the environment may support severe weather though the finer
details including location and specific impacts will be difficult
to define at this stage especially for later periods as the
forecast will become increasingly affected by any remnant
boundaries/outflows from previous convection.

Given recent locally heavy rainfall and the potential for
multiple additional rounds of showers and storms next week
isolated flash and urban flooding impacts are also likely,
especially over areas that recently received heavy rainfall. With
regard to the recent bout of heat, as post-frontal dewpoints drop
slightly (upper 50s/60s across North TX and low/mid 70s across
Central TX) and temperatures peak in the low to mid 90s, heat
indices on Monday should be well below Heat Advisory criteria for
all but our southern row of counties. By Wednesday, with the aid
of precipitation and increasingly cloudy skies, highs will
generally be in the 80s region wide. The active pattern looks to
keep this "cool down" in place through the end of the month.

12

&&

.AVIATION... 
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/NEW/
/06z TAFs/

Gusty S winds 15-20 kts will continue through mid morning, as
brief MVFR cigs impact all airports a few hours around 12z before
925mb flow veers and weakens. VFR conditions return by by/after
15z as winds become SW at 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts from
late morning and through 00z Monday. A backdoor outflow boundary
or weak FROPA will arrive into the D10 later Monday evening with
light N/NE flow around 5 kts.

05/Marty
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&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Dallas-Ft. Worth    98  73  94  71  91 /  20   0   0  10  30
Waco                95  71  94  71  90 /  20   0   5  10  30
Paris               91  67  90  65  87 /   5   5   5  10  20
Denton              97  69  92  68  89 /  20   0   0  10  30
McKinney            95  69  91  68  88 /  20   0   0  10  30
Dallas              98  72  94  71  91 /  20   0   0  10  30
Terrell             92  71  91  69  89 /  20   0   5  10  20
Corsicana           93  73  92  72  91 /  10   0   5  10  20
Temple              95  72  95  71  91 /  10   0   5  10  20
Mineral Wells       98  66  93  69  90 /  10   0   0  10  40
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&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ135-145>148-158>162-
174-175.
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&&

$$