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556
FXUS62 KILM 211327
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
927 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures
this week. A stalling cold front and passing disturbances aloft
will bring rain chances starting Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Clear skies from here on out. No changes to the forecast.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered just north and west of the area this
morning will shift a bit more southeast closer to the area tonight.
Deeper ridging and more of an easterly flow will mean slightly
warmer conditions today, especially inland where the sea breeze will
have a bit less influence. After morning clouds/fog burn off we
expect plenty of sunshine as well. Highs should range from the mid-
upper 70s along the coast to lower to mid 80s inland.

Light winds and a lack of clouds/wind will make for favorable fog
conditions tonight, some of which could become dense with
visibilities of one quarter of a mile or less. Lows tonight mainly
in the mid to upper 50s inland with lower to mid 60s at the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ridge axis will shift offshore Wed with the center of high
pressure shifting with it to our NE, winds taking on a more
southerly component. This will lead to a warming trend through the
period amidst quiet weather. Increased cloudiness Wed AM,
particularly near the coast, due to morning stratus. Highs continue
to warm from the mid 80s to near 90 Thurs, away from the coast that
is due to the the sea breeze. Lows Wed night with the light onshore
flow will warm into the mid-upper 60s at the coast, closer to the
lower-mid 60s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The high will push further offshore Thurs night as a shortwave and
surface front approach from the west. Models are still struggling
with where the front will end up, but current analysis still has it
staying outside of the area, possibly stalling to our N/NW. Our
unimpeded southerly flow (PWATs hovering 1.5-2") and passing
shortwaves aloft will lead to unsettled weather through the long
term period. Temps will be hard to pin down between rain
coverage and the possible front, but aired on the warmer side of
things with us hovering near 90 for now.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through most of the 12Z TAF period. Expect some restrictions
from low clouds/fog until around 13Z this morning and again
tonight, mainly after 06Z. IFR or worse conditions are possible
but confidence is too low to mention anything worse than MVFR
for now. Light N/NE winds this morning will shift to the E/SE
this afternoon but mostly stay 10 kt or less.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog, mainly
through Thursday morning, and showers/storms starting Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure to the north will slide southeast
closer to the area leading to a weaker pressure gradient. Thus,
slightly elevated winds this morning will diminish and stay fairly
light (mostly 10 kt or less) through the rest of the period.
Significant wave heights up to 4 ft to start will also diminish to
mostly 2 ft or less by late tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Sub-SCA conditions. The center of
high pressure shifts N with shower/storm chances increasing Thurs
night ahead of a cold front. Winds will become SW through Wed night
where they`ll stay during the period, increasing to 10-15 kts during
the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas 1-2 ft with swells SE at 9-
10 sec and a decreasing NE swell at 7-9 sec. A 2 ft SSW wind wave at
4 sec will persist through the end of the period starting Fri.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RJB/LEW