-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
059
FXUS62 KILM 031729
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
129 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move farther off the Carolina coast this
week. Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air
northward, resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday.
A cold front could reach the Carolinas on Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Showers along US route 701 are finally waning as forecast by
guidance. For the balance of the day, expect isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly later in the
afternoon with heating. Made a few tweaks to the forecast to
reflect latest trends but overall the ideas expressed by the
previous forecast remain valid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light showers across the region this morning will decrease in
coverage initially as the first in a series of weak shortwaves
pushes offshore. A second weak shortwave will drift
southeastward across the Carolinas today. This, combined with an
inland moving sea breeze will bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

High pressure drifting offshore will bring southerly flow and
help to push the sea breeze farther inland this afternoon.
Warmer temperatures today with afternoon highs in the mid and
upper 80s. Mild and humid overnight with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions Tuesday fairly similar to today, with sfc high
pressure still offshore and weak mid-level ridging in place.
Subsidence is not particularly strong however, and with a
developing aftn sea breeze and inland thermal trough expect
aftn/evening isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
especially inland. High temps 85-90 degrees, with lows Tuesday
night in the upr 60s/lwr 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Higher rain chances (up to 50-60%) for Wednesday and Thursday
than Tuesday, as better mid-level energy pivots through the
area and PWATs are up to around two inches. Temps will also
slowly rise through the week, into the low 90s by Thursday with
heat indices in the mid/upr 90s. A cold front is still progged
to cross the area by late Friday, but rain chances are
noticeably lower (only 20%) than previous days as deep-layer
moisture decreases. The drying trend continues into the weekend,
with temps still slightly above normal - highs in the upr
80s/lwr 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the valid taf period but
isolated to widely scattered storms could affect terminals this
afternoon, mainly inland.  Have put VCTS at LBT and FLO for now as
confidence in TS at individual sites is too low for inclusion in the
forecast attm.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a
little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected
Friday and Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Winds become southerly today as high pressure
moves offshore. Winds generally around 10 knots, increasing
near the coast as an afternoon sea breeze develops where gusts
up to 20 knots are possible. Seas 1- 2 feet.

Tuesday through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue this week
with persistent southerly flow up to ~15 kt at times with sfc
high pressure positioned offshore. Seas 2-3 ft
Tuesday/Wednesday, become 2-4 ft Thursday/Friday as the
pressure gradient tightens a bit ahead of an approaching cold
front. Sea state will consist of the southerly wind wave and a
steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...31
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...31
MARINE...MAS/21