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548
FXUS62 KILM 230730
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
330 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will remain off the SE coast today. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will grow as a series of upper level
disturbances move across the region Friday through Saturday,
while a frontal boundary stalls just north of the area. Inland
temperatures will rise into the lower 90s by Sunday, then cool
back towards normal by Wednesday behind a cold front.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Bermuda High lingers off the coast today and tonight while the
pattern aloft transitions from weak shortwave ridge to more
progressive flow. A couple weak shortwaves move across the area
today, but these don`t appear strong enough to overcome lingering
mid-level subsidence depicted in forecast soundings. A slightly
stronger shortwave moving east-northeast along the NC/SC border will
have the best chance at firing off convection this evening. It
arrives while there is still some surface based instability in the
area and the mid-level subsidence is weakening. Not sure much if any
convection will extend south into SC, but the I-95 corridor could
see some isolated to scattered convection with this shortwave late
in the day. Any storms will translate east overnight. Strength and
coverage will decrease as storms move into a less favorable
environment. Temperatures above climo continue today and tonight.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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Although there are discrepancies in the details, models continue to
signal increasing potential for showers/tstms during the day Friday
with arrival of weak shortwave energy aloft. A second round of
shortwave energy arrives Friday night and lingers across the area
into Saturday. Again, there are differences in model depictions, but
potential for scattered showers/tstms will persist through Saturday.
Convection should trend down Saturday night as the trough moves
offshore, and mid-level ridge builds across the area.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Models continue to trend towards a drier day Sunday with
increasing subsidence associated with mid-level ridging. However
can`t rule out convective potential altogether, given the
relative low amplitude of the ridge aloft, along with continued
strong surface-based instability as temperatures max out 89-92
away from the beaches. Embedded ripples in westerly flow aloft
will promote scattered convection Monday into Tuesday ahead of a
500 mb trough, which will sweep across the mid MS River Valley
and lift to the Great Lakes by midweek. The associated surface
front will cross the area Tuesday night, minimizing rain chances
Wednesday, and bringing temps back down toward seasonable norms.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bulk of the forecast will feature VFR. Morning fog development
appears less likely than the last few nights given the strength
of the nocturnal jet. May have some FEW/SCT sub 1k ft ceilings
develop around daybreak, although confidence is on the low side.
Forecast soundings show a bit of moisture at the top of the
surface based inversion, but it does not appear to be enough to
warrant a BKN/OVC ceiling.

Other aviation concern will be potential for convection moving
in from the west-northwest late in the day then lingering
overnight. Currently appears NC terminals have the best chance,
but cannot rule out storms affecting at least some of the SC
terminals.

Extended Outlook...Morning low clouds/fog Friday morning.
Afternoon showers/storms through at least Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
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Bermuda High will maintain southwest flow across the waters today
and tonight. Some diurnal enhancement of the pressure gradient is
likely with heating, which will lead to a bump in wind speeds in the
afternoon and evening. Solid 15 kt is possible closer to shore late
in the day, before speeds drop back around 10 kt overnight. Seas
will be 2 ft or less today and tonight, with highest seas found in
the evening. A southerly wind wave around 4 seconds will be dominant
with a weak easterly swell also present.

Friday night through Monday...SW flow will persist for the most
part through the period, as high pressure off the coast remains
the prominent synoptic driver. Scattered convection will be
possible, particularly Saturday evening, which could result in a
temporary wind shift to the NW. SW flow will increase in
magnitude Monday as low pressure spins across the Great Lakes,
tightening the gradient across the coastal waters.
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&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/CRM