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825
FXUS62 KILM 210342
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1142 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures
this week. A stalling cold front will bring rain chances
starting Friday.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Cancelled the Coastal Flood Advisory but otherwise no big
changes with the latest update. The concern overnight will be
the risk for fog, mainly away from the coast, which could become
locally dense.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge axis sfc-aloft, oriented SW-NE across the Carolinas today,
will transition very slowly eastward through Tuesday. Time-height
cross sections show a very dry column above 800 mb, and the low-
level moisture gets even shallower tomorrow. As a result, rain
chances will be nil, although some stratus development will be
possible late tonight. With the surface ridge remaining inland,
northeast flow will continue tonight and through most of Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees below climo, however with
more sunshine on tap, and given the positive height anomalies
overhead, high temps Tuesday should reach seasonable norms of lower
to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Winds still out of the NE Tuesday night as wedge of high pressure
still sites to our north. This will bring fairly quiet weather and
seasonable temperatures. A slight retreat of this high will turn
winds more onshore and then southerly Wednesday bringing highs in
the mid to upper 80s. The continued WAA will add about 5 degrees to
Wednesday night`s lows compared to its predecessor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Humidity will be creeping up on Thursday but zonal flow just
upstream from an offshore mid level ridge should keep the area rain-
free. Changes get underway on Friday as the ridge moves farther
offshore and some vort-laden southwesterly flow impinges upon the
area from the west. This will also drive a front towards the area.
The best mid level forcing and surface boundary arrive Friday night,
which appears to offer better rain chances than Friday`s daytime
hours. The weekend forecast details are murky as the boundary likely
stalls out in the area. It`s not that any given day late in the
period looks like a washout but temperatures will hinge considerably
on the uncertain placement of the boundary. At this time it appears
that the boundary does not in fact push through and temperatures
will remain elevated above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC
through the 06Z TAF period. Expect some restrictions from low
clouds/fog toward daybreak and possibly again late in the TAF
period. IFR or worse conditions are possible but confidence is
too low to mention anything worse than MVFR for now. Light N/NE
winds this morning will shift to the E/SE this afternoon but
mostly stay 10 kt or less.

Extended Outlook...Morning vis/cig restrictions possible each
day with showers/storms return Thursday night, otherwise VFR.
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&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday: Surface ridge inland is resulting in a moderate
gradient across the waters. The gradient will ease up this evening
into Tuesday as the high slowly transitions eastward, and winds will
begin to veer from NE to E by late Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...  High pressure still nosing in
from the NE at the start of the period keeping winds NE to E and
quite light, generally capped at 10kt. A light southerly component
develops on Wednesday as the ridge axis retreats to the N. The
remainder of the period will feature a SW wind that will become more
and more typical as we head further into the warm season as the
Bermuda high establishes increasing semi-permanence.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
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&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...MBB/CRM