-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
562
FXUS62 KJAX 290028
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
828 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 823 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Earlier update was to include showers and isolated thunderstorms
where the inland progressing sea breeze was interacting with pre-
frontal instability roughly from SGJ southward to GNV. Showers in
this area this evening will fade through midnight with storm
motion to the SE. Rain free conditions and mostly clear skies are
expected after midnight under drier and `cooler` WNW flow trailing
the frontal passage. Although dry low level air will be filtering
southward across the area tonight, clear skies and recent rainfall
could promote areas of fog, especially were heavy rainfall fell
last night across portions of the Suwannee River Valley up into
Echols, Clinch & Atkinson counties. At this time indicated patchy
fog for these areas 4-8 am Wed.

Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s across SE GA to the
low 70s toward the Atlantic coast, near normal for this time of
year.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
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&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 28 2304

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the frontal boundary
will continue to develop over north central Florida and move
offshore this afternoon followed by more stable conditions as the
front moves south of the forecast area. High pressure following
the fropa will build over the southeastern US through tonight and
into early Wednesday with dry weather, clearing skies, and
slightly cooler temperatures. High temperatures for this afternoon
will reach up into the 90s with overnight low temperatures
dropping down into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas and in
the lower 70s along the coastline.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 28 2304

A dry weather pattern will take hold through midweek, as high
pressure builds to the north of our area and the frontal boundary
stalls over central Florida. Northwesterly flow will become
established behind the boundary`s passage, allowing for drier air
to move into the area, keeping keeping PoPs chances on the low
side for both Wednesday and Thursday. The high pressure will begin
to shift eastward throughout Friday, shifting winds to come from
the northeast- east. Increasing PWAT values on Friday will see an
increase of PoP chances as the day progresses on Friday, mainly
over NE FL.

High temperatures are forecast to remain above normal during the
midweek as temperatures will range from the low to mid 90s across
the area on Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday to Friday will
begin to drop a bit as SE GA will see highs from the mid 80s to
low 90s, while inland NE FL can expect highs from the low 90s to
mid 90s with coastal locations seeing highs in the upper 80s. Lows
for this time period will range from the mid to upper 60s over
inland locations, while coast locations will remain in the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 28 2304

With the high pressure continuing to move off towards the east,
winds will continue from the east and eventually the southeast by
the start of the upcoming week. Onshore flow will bring daily
afternoon chances of showers and storms over the weekend. With the
storms, gusty winds and hail will be the primary concerns for any
storms that become severe. Daytime temperatures through the
weekend and into early next week will remain mainly in the mid 80s
to low 90s, with the warmest temperatures expected on the later
half of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 711 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

Dry weather with prevailing VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds at SSI, CRG and SGJ will become variable 01-03z as
winds transition from SSE with the east coast sea breeze back to
SSW the WNW after midnight. Prevailing WNW winds will continue for
inland terminals tonight, with speeds decreasing to < 6 kts after
sunset. Only a few low clouds this evening, then some passing high
and mid clouds through the night. Shallow ground fog is possible
near sunrise but confidence not high enough to include in TAFs as
dry air advection will be occurring through the night.

Wednesday, drier WNW winds in the morning. Indicated winds
transitioning to NNE to ENE in the afternoon at SSI and SGJ with
the east coast sea breeze as high temps still rise into the low
90s at the coast, with only MAV MOS showing this potential at this
time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue May 28 2304

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to move
across the local waters this afternoon ahead of a weak cool
front. The front will stall south of the waters tonight and
linger through Thursday as high pressure builds northwest of the
region. High pressure builds north and northeast of the region
Thursday and Friday pushing the frontal boundary southward.
Onshore easterly winds increase into the weekend as high pressure
builds offshore of mid- Atlantic coast.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents at area beaches today.
Increase to moderate risk for NE FL beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 28 2304

Heavy rainfall that fell in Atkinson, Berrien, and Lanier
counties will eventually make its way down the Alapaha and Satilla
rivers exacerbating any river flooding. River flooding continues
along the Santa Fe and Satilla rivers this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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AMG  91  66  91  67 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  91  71  90  72 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  94  68  93  68 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  92  71  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  92  67  94  66 /  20  20   0   0
OCF  92  69  95  67 /  20  30   0   0
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&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$