474
ACUS11 KWNS 040600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040600
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1159
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

Areas affected...Central OK to the Red River Valley

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

Valid 040600Z - 040800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
continues.

SUMMARY...Initial severe hail threat will probably transition to
mainly a severe wind threat in the pre-dawn hours. An additional
severe thunderstorm watch and/or expansion of WW 388 to the Red
River may be needed in the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have blossomed over the past
hour with parcels rooted from 900-800 mb within the exit region of a
mid 40s southerly low-level jet as sampled by the FWS VWP. Despite
ample ML/MUCAPE emanating north from central TX to southwest OK, the
increasingly predominant cluster mode coupled with weak shear above
500 mb per the TLX VWP and forecast soundings suggest that the hail
threat will probably remain tempered in the 1-1.75 inch diameter
range. Available 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs are consistent with a few of the
00Z HREF members in indicating upscale growth with convection
accelerating southward to the Red River along and east of the I-35
corridor. As this process occurs, potential for wind gusts from
55-70 mph will increase.

..Grams/Thompson.. 06/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   35169834 35259707 34959562 34639518 33859422 33519389
            33279393 33169407 33219452 33169514 33369670 33589747
            34469838 34939862 35169834