501
ACUS11 KWNS 250050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250049
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-250245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0943
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Areas affected...Southwestern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

Valid 250049Z - 250245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat is likely to increase across southern
Arkansas. The primary threats will be large hail and wind damage,
although a tornado could also occur. A watch extension in area has
been done to account for the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Shreveport,
LA shows a cluster of strong to severe storms just to the northwest
of Texarkana with at least one relatively intense supercell. Ahead
of the cluster, surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 70s, and
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, and
confirmed by the 00Z sounding at Shreveport. In addition, the latest
WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2. This environment suggests
that supercells may be accompanied may have an isolated tornado
threat. However, the greatest potential for severe will be
associated with large hail and wind damage. Short-term models move
the storms eastward across southern Arkansas and keep the threat
going for a few more hours.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33969358 33739401 33469417 33219405 33069357 32999311
            33149284 33629277 33979313 33969358