135
ACUS11 KWNS 251956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251956
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-252330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0954
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Areas affected...much of western into central Oklahoma...northwest
Texas...and south-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 251956Z - 252330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornadic supercells capable of dangerous tornadoes and
extreme hail are expected to develop from northwest Texas into much
of southwest and southern Oklahoma through evening. A similar threat
is expected to develop with rapidly changing conditions this evening
from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

DISCUSSION...Moisture continues to rapidly increase from northwest
TX into southern OK, with 70s F dewpoints and increasing shear.
Extreme instability will favor particularly large supercells, with
right-moving cells possibly traveling for over 100 miles, producing
periodic tornadoes and giant hail.

The initial threat is from activity now developing over northwest
TX, and this should spread north of the Red River and move into
south-central OK by evening.

Farther north, destabilization and a rapidly increasing low-level
jet will result in a developing tornadic supercell threat into the
evening. Storms may initialize near the TX Panhandle/OK border ot
even toward the KS border over the next few hours.

..Jewell/Bunting.. 05/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   33370044 35180015 36779989 37479925 37759846 37849755
            37779704 37569676 37079671 34199711 33789729 33429769
            33369801 33370044