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017
FXUS62 KMHX 060555
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
155 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Southeast coast through today. A
strong cold front will approach from the west Thursday and move
through Friday bringing slightly cooler and drier conditions
over the weekend. Another frontal system will likely impact the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...Upper ridging over
the SECONUS will gradually flatten and break down as an upper
level trough in the Upper Midwest and an upper low near the Gulf
Coast States approach from the west. Two mid level shortwaves
also approach the Carolinas from the west today with the first
flattening and eventually dissipating before it gets to the
Appalachians while the second and stronger trough begins to
approach the Appalachians near sunset. At the SFC, ridging
remains offshore keeping deep layer S-SW`rly flow across ENC
today with winds gusting to around 20-25 mph into this evening.
While we will continue to remain warm and muggy, with upper
ridging still overhead subsidence aloft will likely inhibit
widespread shower and thunderstorm development. But, a few
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms could develop
and as such kept SChc to low end Chc PoP`s in the forecast.
Ongoing convection over the coastal plain is expected to be
longer lasting than the more short lived cells popping up along
the seabreeze. In addition to this, there is the potential for
widespread high and mid level cloud cover to stick around for
much of the day today limiting insolation and thus instability.
Hi-Res CAM guidance generally suggests 500-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE
across ENC the rest of the afternoon. With minimal shear
expected (15-25 kts) across the area as well, the severe threat
while non-zero is once again very low. Temps will be toasty with
highs in the upper 80s across the coastal plain and mid-80s
along the OBX.

Tonight, a brief lull in precipitation will be possible
especially late overnight and into early Thurs morning as the
upper ridge finally flattens completely and previously mentioned
upper trough with associated mid level shortwave enter into the
Wern Carolinas overnight. Either way, have SChc at best PoPs
across far inland zones and offshore this evening as an isolated
to widely scattered shower/tstm or two will remain possible. A
rinse and repeat for temps tonight as the area remains muggy and
warm with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...No major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...As of 1530 Wednesday...Active day ahead
as upper trough and prefrontal trough ahead of a strong cold
front approach the area. Sct showers and iso tstm potential in
the morning near the coast along the developing seabreeze, with
chances increasing through the day with better forcing and
moisture ahead of the front. Similar to the last few days, will
be moist and unstable though weak shear will continue to limit
the overall severe threat. However, an isolated strong storm
with gusty winds and small hail will be possible. PWATs will
approach 2 inches for most of the area, so moderate to locally
heavy rain also possible. Largest change to this time period was
to slightly delay the progression of the prefrontal trough,
which in turn will delay the onset of precip activity in the
form of the broken line of showers/storms associated with the
prefrontal trough. An increase in heat and humidity is also
likely as highs climb into the upper 80s to low 90s, and it will
feel like 95-100 degrees for most of the area when factoring in
the humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Thursday night ahead of a cold front. The front will
move through Friday. Mostly dry with more comfortable temps
expected this weekend. Another frontal system will likely impact
the area early next week with increasing rain chances.

Thursday Night through Sunday...The front will move through
Friday. Isolated showers and storms may linger along the coast
through the day, with seabreeze likely pinned in the afternoon
and weak boundary in the vicinity. Upper troughing becomes more
zonal along the east coast through the weekend with weak high
pressure building in, depicting drier and slightly cooler
conditions across eastern NC. A more comfortable airmass
expected over the weekend with dewpoints falling into the 50s
and 60s and high temps in the 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...Still a high amount of uncertainty early
next week, with the potential for another frontal system to
impact the area. The GFS is the more progressive model pushing a
front through Sunday night/early Mon, while the EC is the
slower/stronger/wetter solution. Will continue to cap pops at
chance given the uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06z Fri/...
As of 150 AM Thu...VFR conditions in place over area terminals
this morning with breezy and moist southerly winds as cold front
approaches from the west. Only appreciable risk of sub-VFR cigs
will be along the southern coast pre-dawn with a risk of
periodic MVFR strato-cu, although heights will be no lower than
2 kft.

Main concern for aviation interests will be convection, with two
rounds likely. First will be focused closer to the Crystal Coast
with iso to widely sct sea breeze convection, posing a risk
mainly for OAJ and EWN after 17-18z. Second threat will be
clusters of cells originally developing along the inland thermal
trough, encroaching on the coastal plain from the west late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Iso thunderstorm risk will
carry into the late evening hours with likely low-level boundary
interactions in a sufficiently unstable airmass. A few stronger
storms cannot be ruled out, especially for any activity north of
a line from HSE-EWN-GWW.

Breezy south to southwesterly winds expected this afternoon with
gusts to 15-20 kt, with a few infrequent gusts to 25 kt possible
across the inner coastal plain.

As of 800 PM
Wednesday...Predominantly VFR flight cats through the period,
with low chances of sub-VFR cigs for coastal TAF sites from
offshore early morning Thursday. Another convectively active day
on deck Thurs with iso showers possible along/near the coast
transitioning to scattered showers/storms working from W to E
across the FA in the late afternoon and early evening ahead of
an approaching cold front.

LONG TERM /Thursday Afternoon through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Scattered to numerous showers and storms
expected Thu afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front, which
could bring periods of sub- VFR conditions. Pred VFR conditions
return Friday into the weekend, behind the cold front with weak
high pressure building into the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tonight/...
As of 1530 Wednesday...Our stretch of benign boating conditions
comes to an end this evening as high pressure remains centered
offshore while a cold front begins to approach from the west
tightening the pressure gradient and increasing the winds across
our waters. Ongoing 5-10 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up around
10-15 kts will increase to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts
across much of our waters overnight. These elevated winds then
persist into the end of the period. SCAs are in place for all
area waters save for Pamlico, Pungo, Neuse, and Bay Rivers.
Relatively calm seas of 1-2 ft gradually increase to 2-4 ft
tonight as the winds increase with yet another chance at some
isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
through the period.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Gradient will continue to tighten Thursday
ahead of a cold front. SW winds will increase to 15-25 kt with
SCA conditions likely for the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound
through Thu night. Will be marginal for the Albemarle Sound, but
SCA may need to be extended. The cold front will move through
Friday and Friday night, with gradient relaxing and winds
becoming WSW 10-15 kt. Light to moderate NNW- WNW winds Sat 5-15
kt. Moderate SW flow returns Sunday ahead of another cold
front. Seas will build to building to 3-6 ft Thursday, subsiding
to 2-4 ft Fri and cont into the weekend.

More uncertainty early next week with potential for another
frontal system to impact the area. SCA conditions possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ131-
     230.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ231.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CEB/RJ
SHORT TERM...CEB/RJ
LONG TERM...RM/CQD
AVIATION...CQD/MS
MARINE...CQD/CEB