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024
FXUS61 KAKQ 220740
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
340 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A summerlike pattern today into Thursday as high pressure
settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front approaches from
the northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Increasingly warm with more summerlike temperatures today

An upper ridge axis extends from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-
Atlantic early this morning, with surface high pressure centered
in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Mostly clear early this
morning with temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Patchy
fog is possible through and shortly after sunrise, but much less
coverage than 24 hours ago. The upper ridge continues to build
across the region today with surface high pressure sliding
offshore. 850mb temperatures warm to 16-17C today supporting
highs in the mid 80s to near 90F inland, with mid 70s to lower
80s along the immediate coast where the wind will be SSE
providing a slight onshore component. Isolated to scattered
showers/tstms are expected to develop over the higher terrain to
the W, and there is a low probability (15-20%) of some of this
activity drifting into the NW Piedmont later this afternoon and
early evening.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and more humid Thursday with temperatures close to
  90 each day.

- Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday
  evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.

Partly cloudy to mostly clear and warm tonight with low
temperatures in the mid to upper 60s. The upper ridge begins to
break down some Thursday as an upper trough and cold front
approach from the NW. 850mb temperatures will still be ~16C
supporting highs once again in the mid 80s to near 90F, and
lower to mid 80s along the coast with a SSW wind. The upper
trough and cold front will provide a trigger for showers/tstms
in a moderately unstable airmass with strong surface heating and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This combined with 500mb
flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms.
Showers/tstms diminish in coverage Thursday night with low
temperatures ranging through the 60s. The front stalls in
vicinity of the area Friday. However, 00z/22 model guidance has
trended downward with shower/tstm chances. Forecast PoPs range
from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday afternoon. Continued warm and
moderately humid Friday with highs in the lower to mid 80s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances
  for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the
weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In
addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a
series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on
timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily
chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in
the 60s through the weekend and into early next week.
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&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is centered in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic coast
as of 06z. VFR under a clear sky with a calm to light S to SE
wind. Forecast soundings depict the potential for some fog,
mainly after 08z with periodic IFR/LIFR vsby possible. Any fog
should dissipate by 12-13z with VFR conditions expected to
prevail thereafter. The wind is expected to become S to SW
5-10kt, with some backing of the wind to SSE along the coast.
The sky is expected to be mostly sunny with FEW-SCT aftn CU.
Partly cloudy to mostly clear and VFR tonight with a light S
wind.

A cold front approaches the area Thursday bringing with it a
chance for showers/tstms along with possible flight
restrictions. The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the
region Friday-Sunday, bringing daily chances for mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk continues for southern beaches today
before returning to low for all local coastal waters Wednesday.

-Marine fog will be possible again tonight. Rain and storm chances
return beginning Thursday.

High pressure remains across the local area this afternoon creating
calm marine conditions. Winds are generally variable at less than
8kt, but should become more southeasterly late this evening before
turning southwesterly during the early morning hours. Speeds are
forecast to remain between 10-15kt. Seas are 2-3ft with waves in the
Bay around 1ft. Another round of low clouds/marine fog may be
possible again tonight, particularly along the Atlantic coast.
Visibilities could be reduced to 1-2SM at times.

The area of high pressure begins to slide offshore on Wednesday
ahead of an incoming frontal system. High-resolution guidance tries
to indicate a brief uptick in southerly wind speeds to sustained 15-
19kt Wednesday afternoon. Rain and storm chances will increase on
Thursday with the front`s approach, and are forecast to persist each
day into early next week as the front stalls out across the region.
Expect the best rain chances to be likely in the afternoon/evening
hours. Currently not anticipating any wind issues with the frontal
passage itself, though strong erratic gusts will be possible with
any stronger thunderstorm during this period. Seas are forecast to
remain around 2-3ft.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day
for the southern beaches. Expecting the rip forecast to return to
low for all beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...

The Nottoway River at Sebrell remains in minor flood, but should
fall below flood stage prior to 6 AM.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur tonight, particularly for the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal
portions of the Rappahannock River and southern shore of the tidal
Potomac. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for these
locations for tonight`s high tide cycle. A similar pattern will
likely continue again later Wednesday as the higher astronomical
high tides will remain elevated.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...JKP
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ