-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
188
FXUS61 KAKQ 251750
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
150 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will affect western portions of the region
this afternoon into this evening. A warm front followed by a
cold front will affect the area Sunday afternoon through Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Saturday...

1012 mb sfc high pressure is located very near the area this
morning. The resultant light winds and residual sfc moisture
led to areas of fog which were locally dense earlier this
morning. Most obs indicate this has burned off, though a few
rural locations continue to see patchy areas of reduced
visibility. Earlier dense fog advisory expired on time at 9 AM
and any residual fog/mist should dissipate within the hour.
Otherwise, skies are clearing across the W and this clearing
should expand E heading into this aftn.

For this aftn, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected. Warm
and humid with highs ranging through the 80s (mid to upper 80s
inland/Piedmont). A sfc trough will affect wrn portions of the
region this aftn into this evening, possibly triggering isolated
to scattered showers or tstms. No severe wx is expected. A few
CAMs also indicate the potential for very isolated tstm activity
along coastal sea breezes early this aftn. Any remnant showers
or tstms will, for the most part, end by late this evening. The
remnants of a convective system may clip the MD Eastern Shore
late tonight, so will keep slight chc PoPs there later. Lows in
the lower to mid 60s tonight with at least some additional
potential for fog or low stratus.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 420 AM EDT Saturday...

- Isolated to sctd showers/tstms will be possible Sunday
  afternoon into Monday morning, with more widespread showers
  and thunderstorms expected Monday into Monday evening with a
  cold front. A few storms could be strong to severe.

A warm front followed by a cold front will affect the area
Sun aftn through Mon night. The warm front will trigger isolated
to sctd showers/tstms Sun aftn into Mon morning. Very warm and
humid Sun with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

Anomalous upper troughing will then push a cold front toward and
across the region Mon through Mon night. This favors higher
coverage of showers and storms, with some potential for strong-
severe storms if the FROPA timing is aligned with the daytime
heating window. GFS/ECMWF both show surface-based CAPE increasing
to 1500-2500 J/kg, combined with 30-40 kt of effective shear.
Decent southerly flow and warm advection will push most areas
into the mid to upper 80s again (lower 80s eastern shore) for
highs. Highest coverage of convection shifts E/SE into the
evening hours Mon, with continuing chances for strong/severe
storms. Rain should be off the coast by early Tue morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 425 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

- Trending cooler and more comfortable for the middle and end of
  next week.

A relatively deep trough will drop into and remain positioned
over the ern CONUS for Wed through Fri. Except for a slight
chance of a shower/tstm over nrn portions of the area Wed aftn
into Wed evening, dry weather will prevail through the extended
period. Highs on Tue will still be in the lower to mid 80s, with
any appreciable "cold" advection holding off until Wed night.
Highs on Wed will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Comfortable
conditions under a partly to mostly sunny sky expected for Thu
and Fri, with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Lows Tue night in
the upper 50s to mid 60s, and in the 50s to near 60 Wed/Thu
nights.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR at all terminals this aftn, with earlier fog/low stratus
having dissipated earlier this morning. An area of CU w/ lower
CIGs (2000-3000 ft) remains over NE NC. Thus, occasional MVFR
could sneak into ECG. Confidence in this is low and will keep
out of the TAF (will go w/ SCT020). Otherwise, there is a very
low chance of a pop-up show or storm later this aftn into this
evening. There is again a strong signal in guidance for fog and
low stratus development tonight. The highest coverage will be at
the coastal terminals and IFR-LIFR restrictions look likely at
ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY. RIC is again the most uncertain and will go w/
prevailing MVFR there. Expect rapid improvement after 9 AM/13z
Sun.

Outlook: Scattered showers/storms will again be possible later
Sun, with highest confidence at RIC. Could again see fog or low
stratus Sun night. A higher coverage of showers and storms
(some of which could be severe) is expected Mon aftn and
evening. Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
  evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters early this
morning, with high pressure in place over the region. Winds are
NNW 5-10 kt winds this morning with waves 1 ft or less and seas
1-2 ft. Winds remain light this morning, with afternoon
seabreeze circulations likely to veer winds around to become
onshore, with south to southeast winds returning in the later
afternoon and evening/late night hours. This same summer-like
pattern will repeat through the holiday weekend. There will
also be the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms each day.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued to keep the forecast below SCA criteria. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Some
more widespread showers and storms will be possible on Memorial
Day (Monday) ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches through the weekend, with moderate
rip risk for northern beaches on Monday with building seas and
more of a shore normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SW/TMG
SHORT TERM...SW/TMG
LONG TERM...SW/TMG
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...ERI/MAM