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373
FXUS61 KBGM 212232
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
632 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Summer like weather expected this evening into the day on
Wednesday with hot temperatures. There will be isolated
thunderstorms this evening, with more widespread thunderstorms
expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few of the storms
could be strong to severe. A cold front then settles south of
the region giving us a short break with mostly sunny skies and
warm temperatures on Friday. A series of disturbances brings
chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and again on
Memorial Day, with seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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630 PM Update...

No major changes to the near-term forecast. Increased
temperatures over the next few hours with temperatures remaining
well in the low- to mid-80s across the majority of the area,
where near-term guidance struggles to maintain warm enough
temperatures. Otherwise, forecast remains on track with chances
for thunderstorms over the next hour or so in the northern
portions of Central NY.


345 PM Update

Thunderstorms are firing up as expected mainly outside of our
forecast area so far this afternoon (over the Adirondacks and
eastern Catskills/Hudson Valley region. The next weak wave and
surface convergence is developing over western NY now, and this
may be enough of a trigger to start some scattered thunderstorm
activity over the northern Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and
Mohawk Valley heading into the evening hours. MLCAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, with LIs down to -5 in this area as of 3 PM.
There is some lingering surface based CIN present too. Effective
layer shear is pushing 25-30 kts, with the supercell parameter
between 1-2, showing some potential for a storm or two to become
organized this evening...if it can tap into the full column of
convective available potential energy. Any t`storm activity will
wane to lingering showers by 9-10 pm with dry weather returning
overnight. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s
for most locations. Model guidance was not showing much fog
potential tonight.

Wednesday starts off dry, mostly sunny and very warm. The
south-southwest winds boost temperatures well up into the 80s
with low 90s in the valley locations. By mid to late afternoon
some thunderstorm activity will begin to develop over western NY
and western PA...these storms will then press east through the
late afternoon and evening hours along the pre-frontal trough.
The environment continues to look favorable for some isolated
strong to severe storms to develop. MLCAPE will be close to
2000 J/Kg, with DCAPE values 800-1100 J/kg also expected. Deep
layer shear is lacking, only around 20 kts...but the ample
instability and good directional shear may be enough to
strengthen storms. There is a slight risk for severe storms over
the western half of the forecast areas from SPC, with a marginal
risk further east. The main threat will be isolated instances
of damaging winds and even a chance for some 1"+ hail. With
ample CAPE, frequent lightning and heavy downpours will also be
possible with any storms. Current best timing estimate are 3-7
PM along and west of I-81...then 6-10 PM southeast of I-81 in
Central NY and NE PA.

After the evening thunderstorms exit, there could still be some
showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight as the front/trough
stalls over the region. It will be rather muggy for late May,
with lows in the 60s areawide.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 PM update...

A cold front will slowly pass through the region Thursday. There
will be enough instability to support thunderstorms, though severe
storms look unlikely at this time. High pressure will bring in drier
air behind this front. Showers and storms will move out of the
region by the evening with dry conditions to follow during the
overnight hours thanks to the high pressure. Dry conditions will
likely persist through at least Friday morning before a weak
shortwave then moves east from the Ohio River Valley late in the
day. This system may bring some showers and storms to portions of
the region late Friday and overnight but there does remain on some
uncertainty on timing and coverage.

Temperatures will not vary much between the two days in this
forecast period as highs will be in the 70s/80s and lows will be in
the 50s/60s. Friday will be the warmer day with highs in the 80s
more widespread.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM update...

The aforementioned shortwave will move through the region Saturday
and will bring another chance for showers and thunderstorms for the
morning hours. Then a cold front pushes through with an additional
round for showers/storms for the overnight hours. The second half of
the weekend will be dry as high pressure builds back into the
region. This dry period will be brief as a low pressure system moves
in Sunday night into Monday, though showers and storms look more
probable on Monday. There may be a brief lull on Tuesday but the
next system will not be too far behind. Temperatures will trend
cooler throughout this period with highs going from 70s/80s on
Saturday to 60s/70s by Tuesday. The lows will be in the 50s each
night this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
150 PM Update

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the TAF period. The one
thing to watch will be the potential for scattered thunderstorms
in the vicinity of SYR and RME from about 21z to 01z this
evening. Included a tempo at these two taf sites for this
potential. Confidence is low to moderate in a thunderstorm
directly impacting the TAF sites at this time.

Otherwise, there will be a few to sct mid and high level clouds
around through the period. Expected a general light southwesterly
wind during the daytime hours. There could be a diurnal wind
shift at RME, ITH, AVP and ELM to more east- southeast or calm
winds overnight. Southwest winds resume by late Wednesday
morning and into the early afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with
restrictions, highest chances from 19z to 02z.

Wednesday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy early
morning valley fog possible.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/MWG
NEAR TERM...KL/MJM
SHORT TERM...BTL/DK
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MJM