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923
FXUS61 KILN 291923
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
323 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Upper level disturbances will keep a chance of showers through this
evening. High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions Thursday
through Friday. An unsettled pattern is expected from late Saturday
through early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Low pressure over northeast Ohio will move into western and central
Pennsylvania during the late afternoon. Multiple disturbances
rotating around the low, along with weak instability, have supported
some showers across the CWA.

One initial band of showers will move southeast across the southern
part of the CWA through 4 pm or so. Other scattered showers are
expected to develop/move southward from northern Ohio through the
late afternoon and early evening. Based on radar trends/CAM data,
continue to favor highest PoPs in the central/south-central Ohio
area.

With this activity, due to weak instability and a good deal of cloud
cover, have not seen much in the way of thunderstorm activity. Can`t
rule out isolated thunder/lightning, however much of the convection
will likely be in the form of showers. Either way, brief gusty winds
could accompany any convection.

As the low moves further away this evening, and after the sun
sets, shower activity should dissipate. In fact, most guidance
suggests clouds breaking up for clearing skies. If this happens,
there could be patchy fog. Temperatures will also be rather
cool for late May, ranging from the mid 40s north to lower 50s
south.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure from Canada builds southward through the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Thursday and Thursday night. High pressure should
provide a decent deal of sunshine on Thursday, but the air mass is
cool and below normal temperatures from the upper 60s to lower 70s
are expected. At night, decent radiational cooling with clear skies
and light winds will support lows in the mid to upper 40s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A series of disturbances and fronts will keep unsettled weather over
ILN through most of the period.

Departing high pressure should keep the weather dry Friday night.
Moisture returning behind the high ahead of a short wave will bring
the threat for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.
There may be a brief dry interlude early Monday before the next
short wave and a boundary arrive from the west with more
thunderstorm chances for Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A more
potent short wave and front colliding with an unstable airmass could
bring additional thunderstorms on Wednesday.

After a cool start Friday night with lows in the low 50s,
temperatures are forecast to be near normal through Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and lows in the low and mid 60s.
Warm advection may boost readings above normal to the mid and upper
80s on Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Initial band of showers has cleared Columbus/Dayton and was
moving through KILN just before 18Z. Scattered showers were
also found near Cincinnati, moving to the southeast. This
activity has the potential to produce gusty winds (20 to 25 kt)
and also possibly brief visibility restrictions. Meanwhile,
expect some additional shower development behind this initial
activity, so the chance of showers will return/persist for the
Columbus/Dayton terminals into early evening. Relatively weak
instability has not allowed thunderstorm development yet. While
isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, confidence in
occurrence is too low to mention in TAFs and convection will
mainly be in the form of showers. Showers wane after dark, and
clouds should also begin to break. If this happens, patchy fog
may form. Confidence is highest at KLUK where have allowed for
IFR conditions late tonight but didn`t have the confidence in
fog formation at other terminals to include in the TAFs at this
time. Winds turn more to the northeast around 5 kt by Thursday
morning.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday into
Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BPP
NEAR TERM...BPP
SHORT TERM...BPP
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...BPP