-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
485
FXUS63 KJKL 281453
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1053 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of cooler than normal temperatures, and drier than
  normal conditions is expected across eastern Kentucky over the
  next 5-7 days.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible this
  afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but coverage and rainfall
  amounts will be scattered and light.

- Warmer and somewhat more humid weather will return by next
  weekend, with our next area-wide chance of showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1053 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Just some minor adjustments to ongoing forecast. Based on latest
HRRR/RAP runs, coverage of afternoon convection might be a little
bit higher, so bumped up PoPs later this afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Rather potent shortwave trough over Indiana will continue to
rotate east through the longwave trough across the eastern United
States today. This feature will serve to do two things - 1) steepen
low and mid level lapse rates which will aid in the development
of afternoon cumulus and a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm
at peak heating (these should remain quite scattered/limited in
coverage), and 2) carve out deeper/stronger negative mid level
height anomalies which will serve to reinforce the cooler air that
has moved into the Ohio Valley.

Expect a fair amount of sunshine this morning to be quickly
replaced by building cumulus during the afternoon, especially
north as mixing increases and lapse rates steepen. Forecast
soundings this afternoon suggest enough shallow instability and
EQLs to -15C or so again especially across the north, a few
lightning strikes can`t be ruled out. However, the overall
troposphere is quite thus shower coverage should remain quite
sparse which is generally an amalgam of the various CAMs -- some
have quite a decent amount of coverage while some have very
little. Better forcing to the north means higher coverage of
showers should remain north of the area.

Lapse rates remain steep overnight as cold advection continues, so
clouds may not erode as quickly as forecast overnight, though any
showers should slowly come to an end. A reinforcing lobe of
energy digging southeast through the longwave trough should
continue shower threats and more clouds especially across the
north/northeast parts of the forecast area. Temperatures running a few
degrees cooler than on Tuesday, and may struggle to reach 70F in
the far north. 355

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

A continued cool and largely dry pattern across eastern Kentucky
for Thursday and Friday, with plenty of sunshine especially
Friday. Friday morning low temperatures could settle into the
upper 40s in some of the sheltered/cold prone areas on Friday
morning, feeling more like later April than the approach of June.

Southwest flow begins on Saturday and increases on Sunday on the
backside of the sharp upper ridge axis traversing the Ohio Valley.
Warmth and humidity will be on the increase, which sets up a more
traditional early June pattern for much of next week with
increasing chances of showers and storms, and temperatures
returning into the 80s with more humidity. Right now the better
chances of rain look to be on Saturday into Sunday, but admittedly
confidence is not overly with considerably amplitude/timing
differences with the next wave(s) as the pattern becomes less
amplified / quasi-zonal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE MAY 28 2024

Valley fog is rather widespread and concentrated in the usual
locations this morning and is heavily impacting KSME and
intermittently impacting KLOZ. As heating/mixing occur this
morning, should see conditions begin to improve. Westerly winds to
10-12kts this afternoon may become gusty toward 20kts for a few
hours this afternoon. Expect scattered mid clouds crossing the
area this morning to become a little more widespread into the
afternoon, and am indicating a broken VFR ceiling at all TAF sites
owing to cool air aloft and good warming of the surface thanks to
morning sunshine.

Still likely to pop a few showers or even a thunderstorm this
afternoon especially across the northern TAF sites. But have
growing concerns that these will be quite limited, so have removed
VCSH and will let future shifts reassess.

Any VFR ceilings remaining this evening will likely scatter back
out but it may take some time as reinforcing puddle of cool air
moves in aloft. If skies trend more on the clear side, expect
valley fog to again develop and have indicated this likelihood at
KSME and KLOZ.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JKL
SHORT TERM...JKL
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...JKL