-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
614
FXUS61 KRLX 211717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides unseasonably warm and mostly dry weather
today. A cold front brings showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
afternoon and Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 117 PM Tuesday...

Summerlike weather will continue in the near-term forecast
period with plenty of sunshine and highs expected to reach the
upper 80s to near 90 degrees in some lowland spots both
afternoons.

A ridge bringing a push of warm, southerly air will control the
pattern today and again on Wednesday. A cold front will begin to
approach from the northwest Wednesday, but it will likely slow
down or stall out over central Ohio Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are
possible late on Wednesday. The best chance of severe weather
will likely be over our southeast Ohio counties. Just outside of
our CWA in central Ohio, daytime heating and a southwesterly
low- level jet will support MLCAPE values of 1,000-1,800 J/kg
and 30-40 kts of bulk shear Wednesday afternoon. The ingredients
for severe thunderstorms over southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky
and West Virginia will be marginal, with high resolution models
showing a timing of 00Z to 03Z Thursday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

A southerly wind in advance of an approaching system will
increase moisture across the area Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This will allow for an increasing chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures will be well above normal
for this time of year, with some lowland locations in the upper
80s. Meso NAM soundings showing 1600 to 1900 effective layer
CAPE for Wednesday afternoon in southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky, and western West Virginia. This combined with some mid
level dry air could produce damaging wind gusts in stronger
thunderstorms and possibly some large hail.

A cold front will then push through the area on Thursday,
providing additional showers and thunderstorms along with more
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 AM Tuesday...

A cold front will stall just south of the area on Friday. An
upper level short wave will then interact with the front and
cause a surface wave to move along the front Friday afternoon
into Friday night. Models continue to struggle with the
strength of the short wave, and hence how far north the moisture
gets and how strong the dynamics are with this system.

Models continue to struggle for the rest of the forecast with
the timing and strength of additional short waves and possible
fronts. This leads to a lower confidence in the forecast,
although there should be several rounds of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 100 PM Tuesday...

Quiet weather will continue through the 18Z TAF period. Expect
VFR conditions and light and variable winds this afternoon. A
stray shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon over the
mountains, but the chance is small enough to exclude the mention
from any of the TAFs.

Overnight, winds will be light to calm with mainly clear skies.
Patchy river valley fog may develop in KEKN and the sheltered
river valleys early Wednesday morning. Dry weather and VFR
conditions should continue through the remainder of the TAF
period, but there is a slight chance of a pop-up shower or
thunderstorm at KPKB and areas along the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A stray shower or thunderstorm could move
over one of the terminals, briefly reducing visibility. Fog
could be more dense early Wednesday morning at KEKN. Fog also
may not develop at KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with a cold front. IFR
possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into
Friday night.
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&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMC