-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
470
FXUS61 KRLX 251551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1151 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front arrives this evening, and stalls across our north through
Sunday. This will keep showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend.
Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1031 AM Saturday...

Freshened up temperatures this morning, running a few degrees
cooler than anticipated, and sky conditions to reflect passing
cirrus as far east as the mountains. Awaiting more hi-res 12Z
guidance to aid in preparing this afternoon`s forecast package
that will encompass the end of the weekend severe weather
concern.

As of 208 AM Saturday...

Low level south to southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching
cold front today. Moisture advection and afternoon heating will
destabilize the atmosphere with surface CAPE values reaching 3500
J/Kg under a low to none shear. Local soundings show a dry column
within a tall skinny CAPE signature. With PWATs about 1.5 inches,
this environment could lead to isolated to scattered slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms some with heavy rain and associated
localized water issues. WPC has most of the area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, SPC has a marginal risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong gusty winds and large hail.
Allowed chance PoPs for afternoon convection, tapering off by
midnight.

The aforementioned cold front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley this
evening, stalling across our northern sections tonight into Sunday
morning. Upper level flow becomes diffluent with no noticeable
shortwaves passing tonight. However, cannot ruled out
convection activity along the stationary front tonight, but the
lack of forcing and heating should keep confidence low. Abundant
low level moisture, calm flow and breaks in the sky will allow
for radiational cooling and associated dense fog mainly along
river valleys late tonight into Sunday morning.

Under plenty of sunshine, afternoon temperatures warm up into the
mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s for the higher terrain. Lows
tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms remain likely Sunday night and into Monday
morning with waves of shortwave energy approaching from the west.
The strength and timing of any thunderstorms overnight still remains
questionable. Most models show storms weakening as they approach
West Virginia from the west, likely due to a lack of instability.
Some thunderstorms may be capable of bringing damaging winds and
hail, particularly across northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio,
where instability will be a little more favorable. Severe potential
is more questionable across West Virgina. Nonetheless, the
atmosphere will still have plenty of moisture with PWAT values
likely to be anywhere from 1.25-1.75 inches late Sunday night and
into Monday morning. Therefore, we are concerned about the threat of
flooding, especially in training showers/thunderstorms and locations
where the ground has been saturated from previous activity. The
Weather Prediction Center places much of the region in a slight risk
of excessive rainfall through 12Z Monday morning, which increases
our concern for potential high water issues.

A cold front will sweep through from the west Monday afternoon.
Ahead of the front will be scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Therefore, the potential for flooding will continue into Monday. The
Memorial Day holiday shouldn`t be a complete washout, but it will be
a good idea to keep an eye to the sky and stay up to date with the
latest forecast. Mid-level drier air will funnel in from the west
behind the cold front Monday evening, which should help curb the
flooding threat.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday as
an upper-level low spins over the Northeast. The flooding threat for
Tuesday and Wednesday looks low at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1150 AM Saturday...

Showers will remain in the forecast Wednesday, but drier weather
should build into the area from Thursday onward as high pressure
expands into the middle Ohio Valley. Temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be much cooler than what we have seen recently. Highs
will only be in the upper 60s in the mountains to the 70s in the
lowlands. Temperatures should gradually warm back into the 80s again
by next weekend as high pressure slides to the east and a southerly
flow returns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 650 AM Saturday...

Patchy dense fog will dissipate quickly by 12 or 13Z. For the rest
of the day, expect mostly sunny skies, interrupted by afternoon
convection. Some thunderstorms could become strong to severe and
capable to produce heavy rain in a short period of time. Conditions
will briefly deteriorate under heavier showers or storms to
MVFR/IFR. Otherwise, VFR conditions under light flow will prevail
through at least 03Z.

River valley dense fog or/and low stratus is expected to develop
overnight tonight. Expect IFR/LIFR conditions at most sites roughly
from 06Z through 12-13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection could be more widespread than
expected producing longer periods of IFR/LIFR along their path.
Timing of storms deteriorating conditions at any terminal may
vary from forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through early next
week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ