Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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160 FXUS65 KABQ 300934 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 334 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Moisture will linger over far eastern New Mexico today, and a weak upper level disturbance will continue to approach the state. Under this scenario, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon, mainly in northeastern areas of the state. Some storms may turn strong to severe with hail, damaging winds and brief heavy downpours. Elsewhere dry conditions with moderate breezes are forecast today with warm and seasonable temperatures. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday and Saturday in eastern New Mexico and particularly in the northeastern corner of the state where gusty winds and hail may accompany any storms. Elsewhere, dry conditions with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast with mostly seasonable temperatures for late May and the first of June. Drier and warmer weather conditions are expected to follow early next week as moisture struggles to stay within the Land of Enchantment. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 The higher dewpoints finally mixed out of western areas late on Wednesday, but they have banked back up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo, Sandia, and Manzano Mountains again this morning. This sets the stage for another round of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms along and east of these mountains this afternoon, and also southeastward across the plains of Curry and Roosevelt Counties with an active dryline. Storm motion this afternoon and evening will be toward the east around 15-25 mph. The perturbations embedded in the flow aloft are forecast to be weaker today, and with 0-6 KM bulk shear only from 15-30 KT, any severe storms today should be more isolated. The dry air moving in from the west today will also be quite impressive, so this will feel like a bit of a downtick in convection and storm severity today compared to the past couple days. Tonight, a gusty and moist backdoor front will plunge southwestward through the eastern plains and seep into the central valley below canyons by early Friday morning setting the atmosphere up for an uptick in thunderstorm coverage and intensity on Friday afternoon. Friday`s convection will mostly span the area along and east of the central mountain chain, and also pop in the upper Rio Grande Valley and northwest mountains where gusty virga showers will probably be more common than thunderstorms. Along the central mountain chain and into the northwest mountains Friday afternoon and evening, some dry thunderstorms are expected with localized, erratic, and brief dry microburst wind gusts up to 50 mph. Further east, northwest flow aloft riding over moisture rich southeasterly return flow at the surface will result in bulk shear values from 30-40 kt. CAPE will also be sufficient for another severe thunderstorm outbreak. After high temperatures a few to around 6 degrees above 1991-2020 averages today, readings will fall a few to 7 degrees below today`s highs across eastern areas on Friday while eastern readings remain above the averages. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Convective storms across eastern CO and northeastern NM Friday evening will hurl out another moist outflow boundary that will advance toward the Rio Grande valley by Saturday morning. Winds will veer southerly into the afternoon hours Saturday, and the dryline will become established over roughly the eastern third of NM where storms will potentially be triggered. The best speed max aloft will be part of the subtropical jet staying essentially south of NM while a weak shortwave trough moves into CO to our north. Generally 20-30 percent POPs have been built into the Saturday afternoon forecast over along and east of the central mountain chain with diurnal heating and weak/localized upslope likely being the main catalysts for convective initiation. The best shear for strong to severe cells would likely stay in the northeastern zones with marginal 0-6 km bulk shear elsewhere. Convection that develops over eastern NM (and more-so over west TX where a large MCS is expected to take shape) will keep low layer moisture entrenched over eastern zones through Saturday night, but it is not modeled to advance very far west and stalls just east of the central mountain chain. Moisture will not be able to reside through Sunday though, as a weak shortwave trough will move through along with a deepening lee-side surface low that should keep the winds oriented southwesterly which would advect drier air into eastern NM. Consequently, temperatures will warm up several degrees in eastern zones Sunday with breezy conditions expected in northeastern areas. Into Monday, the flow aloft will stay westerly with a gentle trough or perhaps even a weak circulation developing near or just offshore of the upper Baja peninsula. The GFS and Canadian are modeling a weak backdoor boundary reintroducing moisture to northeastern NM, but this faint feature does not appear to trigger much, if any, convection at this point. NM then looks to remain between the Baja low and a northern Great Plains low on Tuesday, keeping us dry with light flow. This would then potentially morph into a continental ridge that would start to stand up over the southwestern states with more definition into Wednesday. Light flow would persist, but the dryline could be encroaching into west TX. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Mesoscale models depict scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms continuing to regenerate and move east and southeastward across east central and northeast New Mexico for the remainder of the night. Some storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. This round of convection is forecast to diminish within an hour or two after sunrise, probably lingering longest near and northeast of KTCC. Patchy low clouds and patchy fog are also expected for the remainder of tonight until mid morning Thursday from the Caprock of eastern NM southward, probably impacting Clovis and Portales and potentially extending as far west as Fort Sumner and Roswell. Thursday afternoon and evening will feature another round of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, and across the far east central and southeast plains. Movement will be toward the east and southeast at speeds around 10 to 20 KT, and once again some fairly large clusters of storms are likely to develop. Some of the afternoon and evening storms may turn severe with large hail and damaging winds. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 AM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Moisture will continue to slosh into the eastern plains nightly for the rest of the week with return flow and moist backdoor fronts, then mix eastward with an active dryline each afternoon. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and as far west as the central mountain chain. Along the western edge of the moisture, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are forecast along the central mountain chain each afternoon. The greatest coverage of dry thunderstorms will be Friday and Saturday, when they may extend into the northwest mountains and upper Rio Grande valley with an assortment of gusty virga showers around them. Westerly flow looks to strengthen and probably become gusty Sunday through Tuesday with little or no chance of thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 86 49 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 82 38 83 39 / 5 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 81 46 82 48 / 0 0 5 5 Gallup.......................... 84 43 86 42 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 79 46 81 42 / 0 0 5 0 Grants.......................... 84 43 86 44 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 81 47 84 45 / 0 0 5 0 Magdalena....................... 83 55 84 54 / 0 0 5 5 Datil........................... 80 50 82 48 / 0 0 5 0 Reserve......................... 88 42 89 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 91 58 93 55 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 76 40 76 41 / 5 0 5 0 Los Alamos...................... 79 54 80 55 / 5 0 10 10 Pecos........................... 81 49 81 51 / 20 0 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 46 75 45 / 5 5 20 10 Red River....................... 71 38 70 35 / 20 10 30 20 Angel Fire...................... 73 35 73 29 / 20 5 30 20 Taos............................ 82 41 81 43 / 5 5 20 10 Mora............................ 78 43 78 45 / 20 5 30 20 Espanola........................ 87 49 88 52 / 5 0 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 82 53 83 54 / 10 0 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 50 86 52 / 10 0 10 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 88 59 89 58 / 10 0 10 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 89 56 91 60 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 91 56 92 53 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 89 57 90 59 / 0 0 5 5 Belen........................... 91 51 92 54 / 0 0 5 5 Bernalillo...................... 90 56 91 57 / 0 0 5 10 Bosque Farms.................... 91 51 92 52 / 0 0 5 5 Corrales........................ 91 56 91 56 / 0 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 91 53 92 54 / 0 0 5 5 Placitas........................ 86 57 87 57 / 10 0 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 89 56 91 58 / 0 0 5 5 Socorro......................... 93 57 95 59 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 80 52 81 53 / 20 0 20 20 Tijeras......................... 84 53 84 53 / 20 0 20 20 Edgewood........................ 84 49 86 49 / 20 0 20 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 43 86 46 / 20 0 20 20 Clines Corners.................. 81 48 80 49 / 20 0 20 20 Mountainair..................... 84 49 85 50 / 5 0 20 10 Gran Quivira.................... 84 49 85 50 / 5 0 10 10 Carrizozo....................... 88 56 90 57 / 0 0 10 10 Ruidoso......................... 81 52 81 49 / 0 0 20 10 Capulin......................... 78 46 75 44 / 30 20 60 30 Raton........................... 83 46 81 45 / 20 10 50 30 Springer........................ 84 47 80 48 / 20 10 50 30 Las Vegas....................... 81 46 79 48 / 20 5 30 30 Clayton......................... 85 53 78 53 / 40 30 40 30 Roy............................. 83 50 78 51 / 30 20 50 30 Conchas......................... 91 56 86 56 / 20 10 30 40 Santa Rosa...................... 88 54 84 56 / 20 5 30 30 Tucumcari....................... 92 56 85 57 / 20 20 20 30 Clovis.......................... 93 58 86 60 / 20 10 20 30 Portales........................ 94 56 88 58 / 20 10 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 93 55 88 57 / 20 5 20 30 Roswell......................... 99 62 95 64 / 0 0 20 20 Picacho......................... 92 55 87 56 / 0 0 20 10 Elk............................. 91 53 88 53 / 0 0 20 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44