632
FXUS65 KABQ 211724 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1124 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Warm and dry with repeated rounds of breezy to windy conditions
will be on tap for the next week. Wednesday will feature the
weakest wind speeds until next Monday. Critical fire weather
conditions may return late in the week and this weekend for
portions of western New Mexico where green up has not yet
occurred. High temperatures will be near to perhaps slightly
below normal for the end of May. Very little, if any,
precipitation is expected for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

A shortwave trough across northern NM is currently merging with the
northern stream trough across the northern and central Rockies. Mid
level clouds across central and northern NM from yesterday`s
shortwave is currently breaking up and dissipating due to overall
lift decreasing and drier air taking over. Additionally, winds
across most of western and central NM have tapered off. Winds are
still elevated across northeast and east central NM in the vicinity
of a Pacific cold front. Breezy west winds develop areawide come
late Tuesday morning due to deep daytime mixing, but they will
overall be lighter compared to Monday in the wake of shortwave
trough. The breeziest conditions will be across northeast and east
central NM where gusts of up to 45 mph are possible. High
temperatures on Tuesday will be a touch cooler in the wake of the
Pacific front. Some mid level moisture from another shortwave trough
moving through Colorado could result in a gusty virga shower along
the NM/CO state line late this afternoon through around sunset.

A backdoor cold front enters northeast NM in the wake of the
shortwave trough late Tuesday bringing some low clouds to far
northeast NM Tuesday night. The front will surge through all
of eastern NM come sunrise Wednesday morning. North winds along the
leading edge of the front Wednesday morning could be gusty at times
due to a somewhat tight surface pressure gradient. The front quickly
washes out midday Wednesday. However, high temperatures across the
eastern plains will be around 3 to 8 degrees cooler due to the
higher surface moisture behind the backdoor front. Westerly winds
and dry air across western and central NM will allow temperatures to
moderate a degree to two. A couple of virga showers/ dry storms with
erratic gusty winds cannot be ruled out across far northeast NM
Wednesday afternoon and early evening along a surface moisture
boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

An upper level low will shift from west to east over the northern
Rockies Wednesday night through Thursday, which will allow wind
speeds to increase over NM. H7 winds increase to near 20-30kt
Thursday afternoon while a 990-992mb surface low develops over SE
CO. Strong mixing combined with the increased surface pressure
gradient will allow surface winds to ramp up over Wednesday.
Breezy to windy conditions are expected areawide. That upper level
system will send an associated backdoor cold front southward and
into NE NM by Friday morning. However, this boundary will quickly
retreat as westerly winds mix back down Friday afternoon. Winds
Friday afternoon should be similar or a skosh lighter than
Thursday with the surface low not quite as strong and H7 winds
slightly lighter.

A weak Pacific trough will approach and cross NM on Saturday and
Saturday night. Another deepening surface low over SE CO and H7
winds near 35-40kt should allow for Saturday to be the windiest
day of the next week. Wouldn`t be surprised to see wind speeds
trend upward from the current forecast. A secondary trough may
cross NM on Sunday which will keep winds speeds elevated as well.
A backdoor cold front will slide down the plains Sunday night.
Moist return flow will then set up for early next week with weak
ridging overhead. Thunderstorms could be in the offing by Tuesday
across eastern NM but better chances may be later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period, except for potential MVFR cigs behind a backdoor front
overnight and early Wednesday across northeast NM. Gusty westerly
flow will prevail today and this evening, but winds will shift to
the north or northeast behind the backdoor front overnight at
KLVS, KTCC and KROW. A brief gusty east canyon wind may develop
Wednesday morning at KABQ, but speeds are forecast to remain below
Aviation Weather Warning threshold.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Localized critical fire weather conditions are possible this
afternoon across northeast and east central areas due to continued
hot, dry and unstable conditions. One limiting factor though is low
ERCs due to lingering ground moisture from last week`s
precipitation. A backdoor front moves though eastern New Mexico
Wednesday morning increasing surface moisture and removing fire
weather conditions. Dry, hot and unstable conditions continue across
southern areas resulting in near critical fire weather conditions.
Dry westerly winds increase to the breezy to locally windy range
Thursday and Friday resulting in near critical to locally critical
fire weather conditions for most areas. A shortwave trough looks to
cross the Four Corners Saturday resulting in slightly stronger west
winds. These winds, combined with the continued hot, dry, and
unstable conditions will result in possible critical fire weather
conditions, especially across central and eastern areas. Days of
drying will also help result in higher ERCs across the region.
Higher moisture behind a backdoor front along with lighter winds
aloft from an upper level ridge look to move into the region next
week helping to reduce critical fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  74  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  70  32  74  34 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  71  37  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  33  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  37  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  75  34  77  36 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  38  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  46  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  80  36  80  34 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  83  50  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  63  31  67  33 /  10   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  70  45  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  71  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  64  37  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  61  31  64  33 /   0   0   5   0
Angel Fire......................  63  29  66  27 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  71  34  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  69  37  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  73  45  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  77  43  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  80  52  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  50  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  49  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  85  47  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  82  49  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  84  46  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  83  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  46  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  77  49  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  82  49  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  89  51  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  46  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  75  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  76  43  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  38  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  41  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  77  44  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  45  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  81  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  74  49  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  73  40  69  42 /   5   0  10   0
Raton...........................  76  39  74  41 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  77  40  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  74  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  82  46  75  48 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  78  44  73  47 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  85  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  82  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  52  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  52  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  87  51  83  54 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  58  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  84  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...11