302
FXUS65 KABQ 240933
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Very dry weather, breezy to windy conditions, and elevated to
critical fire weather conditions are expected through Sunday. Winds
will be lighter today compared to yesterday before the strongest
winds of the week arrive Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts of up to 50
mph are possible across the northeast highlands and east central
plains. Winds finally lighten up and temperatures heat up beginning
Memorial Day as high pressure builds overhead. Surface moisture
increases a little across eastern areas Memorial Day thanks to a
cold front, but more moisture moves in from the east Tuesday and
Wednesday and this could help result in the development of a few
storms near the Texas border Tuesday afternoon and evening and
eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

A backdoor cold front sagging southwestward through the northeast
and east central plains early this morning is forecast to stop at
the eastern doorstep of Clines Corners and northeast doorstep of
Roswell this morning, before retreating in the afternoon. Cool air
behind the front will drop today`s high temperatures on the eastern
plains a few to around 9 degrees from Thursday`s readings, while
readings warm a few degrees over Thursday`s readings across most of
the remainder of the forecast area. Winds aloft will weaken some
today, but the surface will still be gusty and very dry.  In fact,
it will be gusty and dry enough for critical fire weather conditions
across the Northeast Highlands from mid afternoon until sunset,
including I-25 from Raton to Las Vegas. A perturbation crossing CO
looks to have just enough mid level moisture with it for some
isolated virga showers near the CO border in the Raton and Capulin
area, where localized and erratic wind gusts could reach 45 mph.

Winds will strengthen areawide on Saturday as an upper level trough
crossing from the west steers the jet stream over the state. West
and southwest wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph will be common, except up
to 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain, and
potentially up to 60 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. Humidities will
be very dry as well with widespread fire weather concerns. The
Canadian and ECMWF Models depict the upper trough crossing with
enough elevated moisture for isolated and gusty virga showers
Saturday afternoon from the Four Corners to the Tusas Mountains,
where localized and erratic dry microburst wind gusts could easily
reach 50 mph given the strong flow aloft.

We also expect well developed smoke plumes today through Saturday
mainly to the east and northeast of the Indios Wildfire near
Gallinas Mountain and Deadman Peak, and also from the Blue 2
Incident Wildfire in the northern Sacramento Mountains.  The Sierra
Blanca Regional Airport observed a low ceiling due to smoke for much
of the night, and this is expected to continue today.  The smoke
will likely drain through river valleys into Ghost Ranch, Abiquiu,
and Ruidoso this morning and again late tonight into Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Winds remain elevated Saturday night across the west central
highlands, central mountain chain, and northeast and central
highlands as Saturday`s shortwave trough exits into the Great
Plains. Brisk northwest flow remains over the state on Sunday in the
wake of the shortwave trough with 500 to 700 mb winds around 20 to
35 kts. The strongest winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be from
the northwest plateau including Farmington extending southwest to
the east central plains including Clovis and Portales. Some critical
fire weather conditions could be possible across the northeast and
central highlands and east central plains with elevated fire weather
conditions everywhere else.

Surface moisture increases a bit across the eastern plains Sunday
night into Monday morning due to a backdoor front entering that part
of the state. There could be some gusty north and northeast winds on
the leading edge of the backdoor front. Much lighter winds look to
finally arrive areawide Memorial Day as upper level ridging builds
over the state. Temperatures also begin to increase across western
and central NM due to the higher upper level heights with
Albuquerque probably seeing its first 90 degree day of the year on
Tuesday (right around the average 1st 90 degree date of May 27th)
and Farmington getting into the upper 80s. Overall, temperatures
next week will be around to slightly above average. Now in regards
to precipitation next week, eastern NM could see some chances, but
its not impressive. Meager moisture from the backdoor front Monday
morning quickly mixes out Monday afternoon. Return moisture from the
Gulf of Mexico moves into eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday
morning allowing dewpoints to increase to the 40s to mid 50s
according to ensemble solutions. The moisture mixes east to West
Texas midday, but could hold on long enough to result in a few
showers and storms near the Texas border. Storms in West Texas
Tuesday evening, will push the dryline and higher Gulf moisture east
of it back west into New Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF solutions
bring the moisture as far west as the RGV and into the ABQ Metro
Wednesday morning resulting in light east canyon winds. Ensembles
agree on an upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW Wednesday
and the westerly flow south of this help push the moisture back east
towards West Texas, but it could hang on long enough to allow for
some showers and storms to develop across the eastern plains
Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, the storm coverage look
pretty meager from both the GFS and ECMWF. The dryline backs west
again towards the central highlands Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, but it appear the westerly flow at the base of the upper
level trough (now moving into the northern Rockies) pushes that
higher moisture and the better chances for showers and storms into
West Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

A backdoor front will shift winds out of the northeast as it
slides through northeast and east central areas during the late
night and early morning hours. The front is not forecast to reach
as far south as Roswell, but it probably will move through the
Clovis and Portales area around 6 AM MDT. South and southwest
winds will become gusty again on Friday afternoon, but the flow
aloft will be a little weaker, so speeds shouldn`t be quite as
strong as those clocked Thursday. Active smoke plumes will emanate
from the northwest, west central, and south central mountains, as
well as Arizona, on Friday. View the HRRR Model`s forecast smoke
loop here: https://shorturl.at/GegLT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS TODAY, AREAWIDE SATURDAY, AND THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
ON SUNDAY...

The ongoing fire growing pattern will weaken some today due to
weaker but still gusty and dry conditions, then strengthen with
widespread strong winds on Saturday, before trending weaker. again
Sunday.  Winds look strong enough and humidities low enough for
critical fire weather conditions today in the Northeast Highlands.
Saturdays winds should commonly reach 35-45 mph, except up to 50 mph
along and east of the central mountain chain where the greatest
confidence exists for widespread critical fire weather conditions.
Sunday, winds will weaken again, but still look strong enough for
critical fire conditions to return to the Central Highlands. The
weather pattern will then shift during the first half of the coming
work week as a moist backdoor front and southeasterly return flow
allow better moisture into eastern areas, and a ridge of high
pressure crosses aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  79  49  78  44 /   0   0  10   0
Dulce...........................  74  38  73  35 /   0   0  10   0
Cuba............................  75  45  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  78  40  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  73  41  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  79  40  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  78  41  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  80  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  76  43  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  81  40  79  34 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  85  53  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  68  37  66  34 /   0   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  75  51  73  49 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  74  48  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  68  46  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  65  38  64  35 /   5   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  68  32  66  33 /   5   0   0   0
Taos............................  76  40  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  44  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  83  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  76  51  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  79  48  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  56  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  52  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  85  54  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  87  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  86  53  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  49  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  86  54  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  81  55  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  85  54  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  89  53  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  75  52  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  78  51  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  79  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  80  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  75  46  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  78  47  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  78  47  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  76  53  74  49 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  71  43  76  43 /   5   0   0   0
Raton...........................  76  42  79  44 /   5   5   0   0
Springer........................  77  43  80  47 /   5   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  76  46  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  76  47  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  85  52  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  83  51  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  86  53  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  53  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  53  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  87  51  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  58  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  88  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  87  53  85  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this
evening for NMZ123.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ125.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44