021
FXUS65 KABQ 290932
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
332 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Moisture has pushed into much of the eastern half of New Mexico
with areas of low stratus clouds expanding early this morning. The
moisture and low clouds will shift back farther to the east
through the afternoon, but not before scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop, mainly in northeastern areas of the state.
Some storms may turn strong to severe with hail, damaging winds
and brief heavy downpours. A few showers and thunderstorms will be
possible again on Thursday, Friday and Saturday in eastern New
Mexico and particularly in the northeastern corner of the state
where brief gusty winds and hail may accompany any storms.
Elsewhere around the state, dry conditions with generally light to
moderate breezes are forecast with mostly seasonable temperatures
for late May and the first of June. Drier weather conditions
expected to follow early next week as moisture struggles to stay
within the Land of Enchantment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

An upper level trough crossing the northern and central Rockies will
work with the low level moisture now in place behind the recent
backdoor cold front to produce another round of scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms along, east, and southeast of a
line from Questa to Clines Corners this afternoon and evening. Once
again, shear and CAPE profiles look favorable for some strong to
severe storms over northeast NM, as well as over far east central
areas where the dryline will be active. From the spine of the Sangre
de Cristo Mountains westward across the northern mountains this
afternoon, isolated virga showers are expected to produce dry
microbursts with localized, brief and erratic wind gusts up to 45
mph. There may be some dry lightning as well along the west slopes
of the Sangres. High temperatures today will fall a few degrees
below Tuesday`s readings over central and western parts of the
forecast area, and as much as 16 degrees below them across the
east.

The dryline will slosh back into eastern New Mexico tonight,
introducing moisture for another round of showers and thunderstorms
across northeast and east central areas as the dryline then marches
eastward Thursday afternoon. Once again, some thunderstorms on the
eastern plains may turn severe with a risk of large hail and
damaging winds. Meanwhile, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms with
erratic wind gusts is again expected in the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. High temperatures look to rebound on Thursday reaching
near to around 7 degrees above normal across northern and central
NM.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Whatever convection develops in eastern CO and northeastern NM
will form a meso-high that will help push cooler and more moist
air into eastern zones of NM Thursday night through Friday
morning. Another batch of low stratus could fill in behind this
boundary as dewpoints rise again. Into Friday afternoon, surface
winds will veer, and the moisture would likely retreat back
eastward again which will dictate where storms can capably mature.
The consensus among models is for the dryline to meander east of
the upper I-25 corridor into the Pecos valley with sufficient
shear and instability (after diurnal heating gets underway) for
strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. Farther
west, dry conditions and near normal temperatures will prevail.

Similar to Thursday night, the convection Friday evening will
push another cold pool west toward the Rio Grande valley through
Saturday morning with more batches of low stratus redeveloping and
expanding. The diurnal mixing will yet again send the moisture
eastward during the afternoon Saturday with the GFS now retaining
the dryline over the eastern couple of tiers of counties where
more strong to severe storms would be plausible. This has led to
an increase in POPs from 24 hours ago in the eastern plains.
Negligible changes are expected in western zones Saturday.

A gentle negatively-tilted trough aloft will rest upstream of NM
on Saturday, poised to move into the central and southern Rockies
Sunday into Sunday night. Another trailing shortwave trough could
then follow on its heels into Monday, and these weak features will
tap into drier air that will push back and inhibit low layer
moisture intrusions from the east (return flow). Sunday, Monday
and Tuesday will consequently be characterized by lower dewpoints
and rising temperatures in eastern zones by 5 to 8 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will continue
to be possible east of the central mountain chain through the late
night hours, but the main concern will be widespread low clouds
producing MVFR and localized IFR conditions for the remainder of
tonight until mid morning Wednesday. These low clouds are likely
to push into Santa Fe with MVFR conditions for a few hours around
sunrise. The worst of the ongoing gusty easterly gap wind at KSAF,
KABQ, and Carrizozo should occur over the next couple hours, then
wind speeds will trend gradually weaker. Scattered to isolated
showers and thunderstorms will develop along and east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening, and
also across the east central and southeast plains. Isolated and
mostly dry virga showers and thunderstorms will also be found
elsewhere across the northern mountains and upper Rio Grande
Valley Wednesday afternoon with brief and localized dry
microburst wind gusts potentially reaching up to 45 KT including
KSAF, Espanola, and KSKX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Moisture will continue to slosh into the eastern plains nightly for
the rest of the week with return flow and moist backdoor fronts,
then mix eastward with an active dryline each afternoon. Daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern
plains and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains until
Saturday, when storms are expected over the Sandia and Manzano
Mountains as well. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are forecast
on the western edge of the moisture each afternoon, which could
result in a few fire starts in the northern mountains. It`s also
worth noting that an upper level trough crossing the northern and
central Rockies is forecast by mesoscale models to produce isolated
virga showers over the upper Rio Grande Valley and northwest
mountains this afternoon with dry microbursts and localized,
brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 45 mph. Westerly flow looks to
strengthen and probably become gusty Sunday and Monday with
little or no chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  48  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  83  38  82  38 /  10   0   5   0
Cuba............................  82  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  41  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  79  44  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  85  43  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  82  45  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  84  53  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  82  49  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  39  88  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  90  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  76  40  75  39 /  10   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  79  53  80  53 /  10   5   5   0
Pecos...........................  77  50  80  48 /  30  10  10  10
Cerro/Questa....................  75  48  75  43 /  20  10  20  10
Red River.......................  71  40  72  35 /  30  10  20  20
Angel Fire......................  73  36  74  29 /  30  10  20  20
Taos............................  81  43  81  41 /  10   5  10  10
Mora............................  74  43  79  43 /  40  20  20  20
Espanola........................  87  50  88  49 /  10   5   0   0
Santa Fe........................  81  53  83  52 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Fe Airport................  84  51  85  50 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  59  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  89  56  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  91  55  91  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  89  57  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  91  52  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  90  56  91  55 /   5   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  90  51  91  50 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  90  56  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  90  53  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  85  57  85  55 /   5   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  89  57  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  93  56  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  79  54  80  51 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  83  53  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  84  48  84  48 /  10   5   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  84  44  85  44 /  10   5   0   0
Clines Corners..................  78  48  80  48 /  20  20   0   5
Mountainair.....................  83  51  83  48 /   5   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  84  51  83  48 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  88  57  88  55 /   5   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  80  53  81  47 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  74  50  78  43 /  40  30  50  40
Raton...........................  79  48  83  45 /  30  30  30  20
Springer........................  79  49  83  47 /  40  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  76  48  81  47 /  30  20  10  20
Clayton.........................  75  56  83  53 /  30  40  50  50
Roy.............................  76  53  82  50 /  40  40  30  30
Conchas.........................  84  58  91  56 /  30  30  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  80  56  88  55 /  20  20   5  20
Tucumcari.......................  84  58  91  56 /  30  20  20  30
Clovis..........................  81  61  93  58 /  20  20  10  30
Portales........................  82  61  94  58 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Sumner.....................  85  58  93  56 /  20  20   5  20
Roswell.........................  91  63 100  63 /  10   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  86  55  92  55 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  90  53  91  53 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44