656
FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1136 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

Smoke from area wildfires will be noticable for at least the next
couple of days and may bring poor air quality to some areas.
Otherwise, expect a warming trend through at least Tuesday with
temperatures rising above normal most areas. Albuquerque is
forecast to hit a high of 90 degrees for the first time this year
on Tuesday. A backdoor front will bring moisture to eastern NM
Tuesday and will fuel a few late day storms that may become
severe. The front will continue southwest across the area Tuesday
night and bring gusty east canyon winds to the Rio Grande Valley.
Chances for storms will stay mostly across eastern NM through the
work week, with some storms possibly becoming severe near the OK
and TX borders. The heat will turn up a bit more over the weekend
as high pressure moves north from Mexico over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A ridge of high pressure will build over the forecast area today
enabling high temperatures to climb from near to around 8 degrees
above 1991-2020 averages.  In addition, winds will be less gusty
than they were Sunday, shifting out of the southwest in most places.
Smoke plumes should be less vigorously developed today, but they may
extend east and northeastward enough during the afternoon and
evening enough to reach Taos, Angel Fire, Capitan, Arabela, and
Encinoso. This evening, a weak perturbation clipping northeast NM
and a backdoor cold front sagging into northeast areas may trigger
isolated virga showers and even a few thunderstorms near the CO
border mainly near and east of Raton Pass.  Dry microbursts could
produce wind gusts up to 45 mph there.

The backdoor front should reach the east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains early on Tuesday, and get tied up somewhere on
western parts of the east central plains further south.  Moisture
with the front and a disturbance embedded in the ridge aloft will
trigger scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon mainly from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains eastward, and
across the far eastern plains. On the eastern plains, bulk shear in
the 35-45 KT range, and CAPE around 1500-4000 J/KG, should enable
some severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon with a risk
of large hail and damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A few strong to severe storms will continue into the evening hours
Tuesday as they advance east toward the OK/TX borders. The
backdoor front, aided by convective outflow, will race southwest
into central NM Tuesday night and result in a gusty east canyon
wind into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys. Wind speeds
are forecast to remain below advisory threshold at this time.
Going forward from Wednesday through Friday, daytime heating
triggered storms will favor eastern NM with the best chances for
severe storms closer to the OK/TX borders where greater
instability and higher surface dewpoint temperatures will exist.
There is some spread among the 00Z medium range model solutions
with regard to a northern stream trough moving across the
central/southern Rockies on Saturday and a trailing ridge. So,
lower forecast confidence for the weekend at this time, but above
normal temperatures are a solid bet as the upper high over Mexico
starts to creep northward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

During the afternoon and early evening, smoke from the Indios
Fire just west of Abiquiu Reservoir is forecast to spread east
and northeast of the fire with potential visibility impacts around
KSKX and possibly KAXX. This smoke plume is expected to move off
to the west and northwest tonight as surface winds turn east and
southeast. Meanwhile, smoke from the Blue 2 fire in the northern
Sacramento Mountains is forecast to impact portions of Lincoln
County to the northeast and east of the fire location including
KSRR, where ceiling and visibility impacts are possible. Smoke is
then forecast to drain into the river valleys below these fires
once again tonight, impacting the Espanola Valley, Capitan, and
the greater Ruidoso area including KSRR through Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

After dry weather today, moisture will slosh into the eastern plains
nightly with backdoor fronts, then mix eastward each afternoon
with an active dryline through the end of the week. Daily rounds
of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains
and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A mix of wet
and dry thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the
moisture, which could result in new fire starts in the Sangres.
Elsewhere it will be dry and warm with high temperatures near to
around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  84  48  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  80  38  84  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  79  46  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  41  84  42 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  78  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  84  42  85  43 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  81  45  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  83  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  79  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  86  40  87  41 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  90  51  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  73  41  77  40 /   0   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  78  54  80  54 /   0   0  10  10
Pecos...........................  78  50  81  50 /   0   0  20  20
Cerro/Questa....................  73  47  75  47 /   5   5  30  20
Red River.......................  69  37  71  37 /   5   5  30  20
Angel Fire......................  71  25  72  28 /   0   0  30  20
Taos............................  79  39  81  43 /   0   0  20  10
Mora............................  77  45  78  45 /   0   0  30  20
Espanola........................  86  50  89  50 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Fe........................  80  54  83  53 /   0   0  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  84  50  86  51 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  86  57  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  87  59  90  60 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  89  55  92  56 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  87  56  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  89  49  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  89  57  91  57 /   0   0   0   5
Bosque Farms....................  89  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   5
Corrales........................  89  57  92  57 /   0   0   0   5
Los Lunas.......................  89  50  91  53 /   0   0   0   5
Placitas........................  84  55  86  57 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  88  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   5
Socorro.........................  92  56  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  78  53  81  53 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  81  50  84  49 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  84  46  85  48 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  85  43  85  47 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  79  48  81  49 /   0   0   5  20
Mountainair.....................  82  47  84  48 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  83  49  84  49 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  87  57  89  55 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  81  54  82  52 /   0   0   0  10
Capulin.........................  76  46  76  48 /  10  10  60  40
Raton...........................  81  45  81  48 /   5  10  50  20
Springer........................  81  46  83  51 /   5   0  50  20
Las Vegas.......................  80  47  80  49 /   0   0  20  30
Clayton.........................  84  53  81  54 /   5  10  50  50
Roy.............................  81  50  82  53 /   5   5  40  40
Conchas.........................  89  53  90  58 /   0   0  20  40
Santa Rosa......................  87  52  89  55 /   0   0  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  90  56  90  57 /   0   0  20  40
Clovis..........................  92  58  94  58 /   0   0  20  30
Portales........................  94  56  97  58 /   0   0  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  91  53  94  58 /   0   0  10  20
Roswell.........................  98  61 101  63 /   0   0   0  20
Picacho.........................  91  57  93  55 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  91  55  92  52 /   0   0   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...33