Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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461 FXUS65 KABQ 311138 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 538 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 The weather pattern for today and Saturday will continue to be divisive with western New Mexico remaining dry and warm while much of the eastern half stays warm, but more moist and humid with a chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Storms could turn strong to severe in eastern New Mexico where large hail and damaging downburst winds will be possible, mainly in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Drier air will sweep into the Land of Enchantment on Sunday, carrying rain chances eastward out of the state. Temperatures will consequently warm several degrees in eastern areas of the state on Sunday with dry and warm to hot conditions continuing through the middle of next week. Some faint moisture may return late next week with low chances for rain returning to some parts of northern and central New Mexico. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Outflow from yesterday`s convective activity across eastern NM has brought increased low-level moisture washing up to the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Dewpoints along and west of the Rio Grande Valley sit in the low teens while those along and east rise into the 40s with 50s closer to the TX border and a few low 60s near Roswell where low-level Gulf moisture resides. This boundary has pushed through the gaps producing a strong east canyon wind at the Albuquerque Sunport gusting to 40mph. These gusty east winds will steadily diminish through the early morning hours, but not before briefly replenishing low level moisture in the central Rio Grande Valley this morning. Meanwhile, smoke is likely to have settled in northern valley areas in the area from Abiquiu to Dulce to Farmington from the Indios Fire. Did include a mention of haze in this area for this morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning. A less active day for the Blue 2 fire yesterday precluded mention of smoke in the Sacramento Mountains this morning. The focus shifts back to development of thunderstorms and potential for severe weather across eastern NM this afternoon and evening. The additional moisture across eastern NM will allow for increased instability highlighted by 1500 to 2500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Convective initiation will favor the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains near 12pm to 1pm MDT where surface easterly upslope flow will underlay a weak upper level perturbation skirting over CO. Storms here will be collocated with drier air mixing out the higher moisture, and subsequently lowering the amount of available fuel for these initial storms to grow with. Westerly flow aloft will track these storms east toward higher low-level moisture and instability and these cells do have a chance to grow in strength as they reach toward the TX border by 5pm to 7pm MDT timeframe. There is a slight risk for severe highlighted by SPC in northeastern NM where timing of these cells reaching higher instability and better bulk shear of ~30kts will occur. Less shear and lower chances for initiation will be present further south, but some hi-res CAMs are showing a few storms trying to get going over the Sacramento Mountains moving into Chaves County. Did extend slight chance to chance PoPs to this area to account for this. Moisture swashes back west to the central mountain chain Friday night into Saturday morning thanks to another round of convective outflows. The synoptic setup for Saturday`s convective weather will be slightly different with an approaching upper level troughing pattern moving over AZ. This shortwave trough will be approaching southeasterly return flow through most of eastern NM. Convective initiation looks to favor more the south-central mountains with lesser to equal initiation over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. With low-level surface moisture looking to hold on longer Saturday compared to today, storms developing along the east slopes of the central mountain chain in the early afternoon will have an easier time reaching areas of higher instability and bulk shear by mid- afternoon. SPC`s expansion of the slight risk area across eastern NM is very reasonable as a result. Gusty winds and large hail will be possible with these cells as they track east toward TX. Outflow boundary collisions will expand coverage into east-central NM late day and early evening. Convective activity steadily moves into TX or dies out near the midnight hour Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Another subtle shortwave trough will move across the southwestern states and over the central Rockies through Sunday. This will be coupled with a lee-side surface trough that will deepen to about 992 mb Sunday afternoon. Not only will it boost breezes by a few knots (both aloft and at the surface), but with more of a southwesterly component working into the plains, much of the low layer moisture should mix eastward into TX. This will shove storm chances to the TX border and eastward while the drier downsloping winds boost temperatures in eastern NM zones. During the Monday through Wednesday timeframe, a gentle upstream trough will slowly evolve into a closed subtropical circulation offshore of the Baja peninsula while a continental ridge of high pressure begins expanding over the Rio Grande valley, southern Rockies and Great Basin, the precursor to the monsoon. Dry and warm to hot temperatures will be the rule Monday and Tuesday, but a weak backdoor front will sneak into eastern zones Tuesday night into early Wednesday, setting readings down several degrees in eastern zones by Wednesday afternoon. There could be some faint moisture/surface convergence and/or upslope to kick off a couple of storms over the Sangre de Cristos late Wednesday. Rain chances appear higher into Thursday with a better southward tap of subdued subtropical moisture and the possible aide of a reinforcing backdoor front (mostly advertised by ECMWF and Canadian runs). && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 East canyon winds have subsided at KABQ this past hour. Low clouds with pockets of MVFR persist through portions of Lincoln and Chaves County and near KROW and KSRR this hour but are slowly clearing from east to west. VFR prevails until the afternoon when isolated to scattered thunderstorms initiate along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mts around 19Z to 20Z. These cells will track east to southeast over northeastern and east-central NM to the TX border by 00Z to 02Z. Some of these storms will become strong to severe. More isolated thunderstorms will be possible further south along the Sacramento Mts and have maintained the PROB30 at KROW highlighting the lesser chances there. Outflow from these storms will kick moisture back west tonight likely giving ABQ another east canyon wind, but not expecting it to reach AWW strength as it did last night. There is a bit higher potential for low clouds and IFR/MVFR cigs however. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 No large scale critical fire weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. A generic dry and warm weather pattern will hold true over western NM with higher moisture and better recoveries holding true over eastern NM. Daily rounds of afternoon/evening thunderstorms, with some becoming severe, will start along the east slopes of the central mountain chain in the early afternoon and push east to TX today and Saturday. The highlands and mainly the Middle Rio Grande Valley zones will see the low level moisture swash east and west each day with good recoveries in the morning and low near 10 percent MinRHs in the afternoon. High Haines6 will be present through the western two-thirds of the state allowing for active fires like the Indios Fire to produce active smoke plumes each afternoon. Some of this smoke is likely to settle into surrounding valley areas each morning as well. Drier and warmer weather expands through eastern NM Sunday through Tuesday thanks to increasing southwesterly flow pushing into the region Sunday. Winds looks to produce elevated fire weather conditions Sunday but subside in strength Monday and Tuesday. Thereafter, a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the desert southwest. While it looks fairly good, a backdoor front will bring increased moisture into eastern NM by Wednesday and through the end of next week, the question is where the upper ridge sets up. Model discrepancies range from the ridge over the western Great Basin to a more easterly position over the southern Great Plains. This will greatly impact how afternoon thunderstorm activity develops along and east of the central mountain chain and how far west the low level moisture can push into the state. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 87 52 91 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 83 40 86 40 / 0 0 10 0 Cuba............................ 83 47 84 49 / 0 0 10 0 Gallup.......................... 87 43 87 42 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 82 47 83 46 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 87 45 88 45 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 85 48 85 47 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 85 56 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 82 52 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 90 42 90 41 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 93 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 42 79 42 / 5 0 20 5 Los Alamos...................... 80 55 82 56 / 10 5 20 5 Pecos........................... 81 52 82 52 / 20 10 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 75 48 77 49 / 10 10 30 10 Red River....................... 71 41 73 43 / 20 20 40 10 Angel Fire...................... 74 37 75 39 / 20 20 30 10 Taos............................ 82 44 83 45 / 10 10 20 10 Mora............................ 78 45 78 46 / 30 20 30 20 Espanola........................ 87 51 90 52 / 5 5 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 83 55 85 54 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 87 53 88 53 / 5 5 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 90 60 90 61 / 0 5 5 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 91 57 92 58 / 0 0 5 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 93 53 94 57 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 91 59 92 59 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 93 51 94 54 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 92 56 93 59 / 0 0 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 93 49 93 54 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 93 57 93 59 / 0 0 5 5 Los Lunas....................... 93 51 93 55 / 0 0 5 0 Placitas........................ 87 57 88 59 / 0 5 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 91 57 92 59 / 0 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 95 59 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 82 52 83 55 / 0 5 10 5 Tijeras......................... 85 52 86 55 / 0 5 5 5 Edgewood........................ 86 49 88 52 / 5 5 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 45 88 48 / 5 5 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 81 48 83 50 / 10 10 10 10 Mountainair..................... 85 49 86 54 / 5 5 5 5 Gran Quivira.................... 85 49 86 53 / 5 5 5 5 Carrizozo....................... 90 57 90 57 / 5 0 10 5 Ruidoso......................... 81 53 83 54 / 10 0 20 10 Capulin......................... 74 47 77 51 / 60 50 40 20 Raton........................... 80 47 80 48 / 50 40 30 10 Springer........................ 80 49 81 49 / 50 30 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 79 49 80 50 / 50 20 30 20 Clayton......................... 78 54 83 58 / 40 30 20 20 Roy............................. 78 52 81 54 / 40 30 30 30 Conchas......................... 86 57 90 60 / 30 30 20 30 Santa Rosa...................... 85 56 86 57 / 30 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 86 57 89 61 / 40 30 20 30 Clovis.......................... 85 60 89 62 / 10 30 20 30 Portales........................ 87 58 91 60 / 10 20 20 30 Fort Sumner..................... 88 58 91 59 / 10 30 20 20 Roswell......................... 92 65 95 66 / 20 20 20 20 Picacho......................... 86 56 88 56 / 20 5 40 10 Elk............................. 86 53 89 54 / 20 0 30 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...24