358
FXUS65 KABQ 282120
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
320 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in far northeast NM late
this afternoon into early evening could turn strong to severe,
particularly in northeastern parts of New Mexico and along the
Texas line where large hail and damaging winds are the main
weather hazards. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be
possible once again Wednesday and Thursday, mainly east of the
central mountain chain. For central and western NM, dry conditions
with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast for the
remainder of the work week. High temperatures are forecast to be
near seasonal averages for late May and early June.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms in eastern NM this afternoon will
send rain cooled air westward tonight. A few showers or thunderstorms
are possible along this backdoor boundary/front as it encounters
the southern Sangre de Cristo mountains and central highlands near
Clines Corners. East canyon winds into the middle Rio Grande
Valley will start an hour or two after sunset, peaking just after
midnight around 35-40 kt in the ABQ metro. Areas of upslope
stratus clouds develop behind the front mainly north of I-40
overnight. As the east winds die off in the middle RGV toward
sunrise Wednesday, southwest flow aloft will mix down with daytime
heating, scouring out the Gulf moisture from the RGV and areas to
the lee of the central mountain chain. Enough residual moisture,
however, will be present Wednesday for isolated showers and
thunderstorms primarily over the Sangre de Cristo mountains and
northeast highlands during the afternoon. Additionally, a strong
to severe storm cannot be ruled out of northeast Union county
Wednesday afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging
winds the main hazards. Return southeasterly low level flow moves
into eastern NM Wednesday night, setting the stage for possible
strong to severe storms Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

As the northern and southern stream jets come more in phase with
one another Wednesday night, a short-wave trough will move through
NM Thursday. This feature will help get more strong to severe
storms going in northeast NM Thursday afternoon. Bulk shear
continues to look like a limiting factor Thursday afternoon with
the trough axis moving over the better thermodynamic parameters.
Ridge axis moves overhead on Friday and with northwest flow aloft
over the northeast quarter, more strong to severe storms develop
during the afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are once again
the main convective threats both Thursday and Friday. This pattern
repeats on Saturday, with more in the way of strong to severe dryline
storms for eastern NM. By Sunday, another weak southern stream
trough moves into southern CA and southwest AZ, resulting in
increasing southwest winds for all areas.

After the above mentioned dry upper level trough translates east
of NM Monday night, an old friend returns to NM Tuesday and
Wednesday. This old friend is in the form of the monsoon high
setting up over NM toward the middle of next week. Keep in mind
that it`s a gentler friend this year with less convection in the
EPAC. What goes up in the tropics and subtropics must come down in
the lower mid latitudes. In other words, the monsoon high is not
as strong as it was last year due to El Nino related convection.
It`s that time of year and this monsoon season will most likely
start a tad late due to a stronger than average subtropical jet
stream in a weakening state due to a cooling EPAC. Once it
weakens to below average sometime in late June or early July, a
fairly robust monsoon is forecast for the reasons listed above.
La Nina and a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in
general, result in an active monsoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Low level moisture in far eastern New Mexico today will lead to
scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. This
activity. A few storms could turn severe, particularly in the far
northeast plains and along the Texas border where large hail and
damaging winds are the main threats to aviation. Elsewhere, dry
conditions with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast.
By tonight, rain cooled air from showers and thunderstorms in
eastern NM and west TX is forecast to surge westward and result in
isolated showers or thunderstorms and widespread MVFR to IFR
ceilings mainly north of I-40 late tonight. Developing southwest
winds are forecast to begin scouring out the Gulf moisture by late
morning Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 116 PM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Gulf moisture will continue to move into the eastern plains
nightly this week with backdoor fronts and then mix out with
daytime heating an active dryline each day. Daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and
as far west as the Sangre de Cristos mountains. A mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the
Gulf moisture, which could result in a few fire starts in the
northern mountains along the west slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mountains Wednesday. For central and western portions of the state,
it will remain dry and warm with high temperatures near average
for late May into early June. Sunday and Monday continue to look
dry and windy areawide as westerly flow strengthens over the
state. The monsoon high is forecast to set up over NM during the
middle of next week, resulting in much less wind for late next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  49  88  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  38  83  38  82 /   0   0   0   5
Cuba............................  46  82  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  42  83  41  84 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  46  80  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  43  85  43  83 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  47  83  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  84  53  83 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  49  82  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  41  87  39  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  58  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  40  77  40  76 /   0  10   0  10
Los Alamos......................  54  80  54  79 /   5  20   5   5
Pecos...........................  50  80  51  81 /  20  30  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  47  75  48  74 /   5  30  10  20
Red River.......................  38  72  40  71 /  10  30  10  30
Angel Fire......................  30  74  33  73 /  10  30  20  20
Taos............................  41  81  41  81 /   5  20  10  10
Mora............................  44  77  45  78 /  20  40  20  20
Espanola........................  50  88  51  87 /   5  20   5   5
Santa Fe........................  52  82  53  82 /  10  20  20   5
Santa Fe Airport................  52  85  51  86 /   5  20  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  58  88  58  87 /   0   5   5   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  62  89  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  58  91  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  90  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  52  91  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  58  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  52  90  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  58  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  53  90  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  56  85  57  86 /   0   0   5   0
Rio Rancho......................  57  89  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  57  94  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  52  80  53  80 /  10   5   5   0
Tijeras.........................  49  83  50  83 /  10   5   5   0
Edgewood........................  48  85  48  84 /  10  10   5   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  46  85  45  85 /  10  10  10   0
Clines Corners..................  49  80  48  80 /  20  20  10   5
Mountainair.....................  48  84  50  83 /  10   5   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  49  84  51  83 /  10   5   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  89  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  51  82  53  81 /  10  10   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  75  50  77 /  30  50  30  50
Raton...........................  48  81  48  81 /  20  40  20  30
Springer........................  51  80  48  82 /  20  40  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  49  79  49  80 /  20  40  30  20
Clayton.........................  53  78  56  82 /  60  40  30  40
Roy.............................  52  78  53  81 /  40  50  40  30
Conchas.........................  58  86  58  89 /  30  30  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  56  83  56  87 /  20  20  30  10
Tucumcari.......................  56  85  59  87 /  30  30  30  20
Clovis..........................  58  83  61  92 /  30  20  20  20
Portales........................  58  85  61  95 /  20  20  20  10
Fort Sumner.....................  58  88  59  92 /  20  20  20  10
Roswell.........................  64  94  63 100 /   5  10   5   5
Picacho.........................  55  88  55  92 /   0  20   5   5
Elk.............................  52  90  53  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...33