672
FXUS65 KABQ 220549 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1149 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

A prolonged period of very dry, warm, and windy conditions will
prevail over the region with dangerous fire weather possible on
several days. Humidity values each afternoon will fall to between 8
and 13% through this weekend with wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph common
just about every day. Temperatures will also be very warm with the
lower elevations of the Rio Grande Valley and much of eastern NM in
the upper 80s to 90s. The strongest winds are possible on Saturday
when gusts may exceed 50 mph for parts of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

An upper level trough moving east across the central/southern
Rockies is steering stronger westerly winds aloft over the state and
with daytime mixing is producing breezy to windy conditions across
the area. High temperatures this afternoon will be several degrees
less than yesterday`s given a slight change in airmass that took
place last night. The trough will eject out of the Rockies this
evening and push a backdoor front down the eastern plains through
Wednesday morning. Gusty northerly winds will be common behind the
front overnight, with speeds hitting up to between 30-40mph. The
front is forecast to progress southwest to the central mountain
chain Wednesday morning and bring a brief gusty east canyon wind
into the middle RGV after sunrise, but well below advisory
threshold. The backdoor front will bring a few degrees of relative
cooling to the eastern plains for Wednesday, but the rest of the
area will be a degree or two warmer and generally within a few
degrees of normal. Deep layer mixing of moderate west-southwest
winds aloft will bring breezy to locally windy conditions to central
and wester NM Wednesday afternoon/evening. Westerly winds aloft will
trend up some Wednesday night ahead of an upstream trough moving
east toward the central Rockies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

A shortwave trough will shift east Thursday then fast zonal flow
dominates the medium and long-term forecast with very dry, warm,
and breezy to windy conditions on most days. A 110kt speed max
moving over the area Thursday will create widespread west winds
with gusts up to 45 mph possible over eastern NM. A weak cold
front will slide into eastern NM Thursday night then wash out
Friday with gusty southwest winds again by the afternoon. Breezy
winds will persist over western NM. The next upper trough will
race thru the central Rockies Saturday with a 115 kt speed max
centered over NM. This will lead to another day of widespread
west winds with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible for parts of
the area, mainly eastern NM. Winds will trend lighter on Sunday
but still with widespread breezy conditions. Another weak cold
front is expected to slide into eastern NM Sunday night. Relief
from the stronger winds may begin Monday as upper level ridging
attempts to build northward over NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

A dry backdoor cold front currently in northeast NM will push
through KTCC and KLVS around 06 to 07Z and through KROW around
12Z. There could be some low clouds and MVFR ceilings near Raton
Pass, but confidence in this occurring is low. North to northeast
winds on the leading edge of the backdoor front will be stronger
with gusts of up to 35 kts possible. It will also impact KSAF and
KABQ providing a SE and E wind respectively around sunrise
Wednesday. The east wind at KABQ will light to moderate with gusts
of up to 30 kts possible, just below Airport Weather Warning
criteria. Westerly flow aloft mixing down to the surface will wash
out the backdoor front first across central areas late morning
followed by the eastern highlands midday and the eastern plains
come the mid to late afternoon. West to southwest winds in the
afternoon will be breezy across west central areas including KGUP
and the northeast highlands including KLVS with gusts of up to 30
kts possible. Winds drop off shortly after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 PM MDT Tue May 21 2024

A backdoor front will progress southwest down the eastern plains to
the central mountain chain overnight and provide a brief bump in
humidity and slightly cooler temperatures going into Wednesday,
while western and portions of central NM remain warm, very dry and
unstable. An upper level trough will move east across the central
Rockies and steer stronger winds aloft over the area on Thursday,
which will result in breezy to windy and gusty conditions by
afternoon given deep layer mixing. Critical fire weather conditions
are possible across western/central NM Thursday afternoon, but need
wind speeds to trend up a tad more from current forecast before
issuing a watch/warning. Less wind on Friday behind the departing
trough, but a big ramp up in critical fire weather conditions is
forecast Saturday as stronger winds aloft associated with a
shortwave trough move directly overhead. Less wind behind the
departing trough on Sunday, but very dry conditions persist with at
least some potential to exceed critical threshold on wind speeds.
Expect a downtrend in wind speeds early next week as an upper level
ridge amplifies over the region. Will monitor trends in ERCs for
east central and northeast NM going forward, but current values do
not support inclusion in any watches/warnings going through at least
this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  71  38  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  65  30  73  36 /  10   0   0   0
Cuba............................  71  37  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  73  32  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  68  36  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  73  32  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  75  38  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  78  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  74  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  78  35  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  82  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  60  30  67  35 /  10   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  69  45  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  73  40  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  63  35  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  52  30  61  35 /   0   0   0   5
Angel Fire......................  62  28  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  70  32  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  67  36  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  78  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  71  45  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  76  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  52  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  78  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  82  49  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  84  46  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  79  48  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  82  46  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  80  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  84  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  76  48  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  79  49  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  51  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  71  45  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  74  46  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  73  42  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  37  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  71  40  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  76  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  79  53  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  76  48  74  51 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  72  39  70  43 /   5   0  10  10
Raton...........................  75  39  74  41 /   0   0   5   5
Springer........................  77  40  76  41 /   0   0   5   0
Las Vegas.......................  71  38  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  81  46  74  50 /   0   0   5   5
Roy.............................  77  44  72  46 /   0   0   5   0
Conchas.........................  84  50  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  81  49  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  85  49  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  51  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  89  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  86  51  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  60  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  53  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  82  51  84  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...71