092
FXUS65 KABQ 011804 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1204 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Strong to severe storms will again favor areas along and
east of the central mountain chain today. Cloud to ground lightning,
large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main hazards with any
of these storms as they track east toward the TX border by the
evening. Drier weather and near record heat arrives Sunday and lasts
through Tuesday. Roswell will flirt with a daily record high Monday
June 3rd with a forecast high of 104F. The heat backs off a tad
Wednesday and beyond through eastern NM, staying hot across central
and western NM. Chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
increase mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A moist convectively-aided surface boundary has shifted west thru
gaps in the central mt chain early this morning. Peak wind gusts to
47 mph were reported briefly at KABQ. Dewpoints have risen into the
40s and low 50s over eastern NM behind this boundary. Low stratus is
expanding across the plains with widespread coverage expected thru
sunrise. Clouds will clear from west to east thru mid morning then
destabilization will occur along and east of the central mt chain.
SPC still shows a large `Slight Risk` area across far eastern NM.
Bulk shear is nearly half the values from Friday with a shortwave
ridge cresting east over the region. Nonetheless, instability and
lift are still impressive as a dryline sharpens thru late day into
the early evening hours. These storms will move east/southeast and
be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain.

A weak shortwave trough then approaches from the west tonight and
helps surface winds veer to the south/southwest overnight. This will
mitigate low cloud development across eastern NM and allow mixing of
low level moisture much farther to the east for Sunday. Max temps
will trend much warmer across the plains Sunday on breezy southwest
winds. Humidity will be exceptionally low with almost the entire
region below 10%. Just enough moisture may linger over Union County
for a few late day high-based showers/storms before sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The warmest temperatures of the year so far are
forecast to start the long term period Monday, notably at Roswell.
Quasi-zonal flow aloft will bring breezy westerly winds across much
of the area, downsloping through the eastern plains. Compressional
warming lee of the Sacramento Mountains will warm temperatures to a
high of 104F at Roswell, which would tie the daily record high there
set back in 2008. 90s will be present elsewhere across the eastern
plains and lower to middle Rio Grande Valley with 80s in the middle
elevations and 70s in the higher elevations. Winds back off a little
Tuesday but rising pressure heights keep temperatures inching
higher. Another 104F is forecast at Roswell, with temperatures
elsewhere warming a few more degrees over northern and central NM.

Relative relief from the heat arrives Wednesday morning thanks to an
upper low crossing the northern Great Plains sending down a backdoor
cold front into northeastern NM. This front looks to push through
most of eastern NM by mid-day Wednesday replenishing low level
moisture along the way. Forecast highs across eastern NM drop 5F to
8F degrees as a result, staying hot along and west of the central
mountain chain. The season`s first true dome of high pressure
develops over the desert southwest Wednesday, looking to center
itself over west-central NM Wednesday. This ridge remains centered
over NM with moisture trying to intrude beneath it through eastern
NM allowing for daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing
along the central mountain chain and moving off over surrounding
lower elevations in the late afternoon and evening hours. PoPs will
be notably lower along and west of the Rio Grande Valley where
there will be less moisture for convection to work with.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Another round of tstms expected today, with initiation already
underway as of 01/18Z. Storms will favor the high terrain before
moving ely into the ern plains where some could become strong to
severe. Primary hazards include frequent lightning, large hail,
and damaging winds. Activity will move into TX aft 02/03Z. Low
cigs may redevelop overnight but will likely only impact far ern
areas. Winds will become light and vrb most areas overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 AM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Another round of strong to severe storms will impact eastern NM
today but with less coverage than Friday. Southwest winds will trend
a little stronger over western NM today with single digit humidity
likely for several hours. Moisture will be scoured from the entire
region Sunday with stronger southwest winds and widespread single
digit humidity. Critical fire weather conditions are possible along
the I-25 corridor of northeast NM with widespread marginal critical
conditions elsewhere. If winds trend stronger in future guidance
then a Fire Weather Watch may be needed Sunday. Winds will trend
lighter Monday and Tuesday but it will remain very dry with more
marginally critical fire weather for western NM. Temps will also
trend warmer with readings above normal for much of the region into
early next week. The next backdoor cold front may enter eastern NM
Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and storms thru late
in the week over the plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  91  50  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  40  82  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  85  47  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  87  40  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  82  46  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  86  43  84  43 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  86  46  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  86  54  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  86  49  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  88  39  86  39 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  92  55  91  54 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  41  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  82  56  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  86  49  84  50 /   5   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  77  43  78  42 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  69  40  70  40 /  20   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  75  35  76  33 /  10   0   0   0
Taos............................  83  44  84  42 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  77  44  80  47 /  10   0   0   0
Espanola........................  88  53  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  83  54  83  54 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  88  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  60  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  91  59  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  57  92  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  92  59  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  93  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  91  59  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  92  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  92  57  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  93  54  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  89  59  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  91  59  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  96  59  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  83  56  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  87  55  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  85  53  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  87  47  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  82  50  82  50 /   5   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  87  53  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  86  50  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  89  56  89  58 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  83  54  83  54 /  20   5   0   0
Capulin.........................  76  49  83  50 /  20  20   5   0
Raton...........................  81  46  87  47 /  20  10   0   0
Springer........................  83  47  88  48 /  20  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  78  48  83  50 /  10   5   0   0
Clayton.........................  83  56  90  56 /  30  20  10   0
Roy.............................  80  53  87  52 /  20  10   0   0
Conchas.........................  88  58  95  55 /  20  10   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  85  57  91  58 /  20   5   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  87  59  95  56 /  20  10   0   0
Clovis..........................  87  60  94  59 /  30  20   0   0
Portales........................  88  59  96  57 /  30  20   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  89  59  96  57 /  20   5   0   0
Roswell.........................  94  63 102  63 /  30  20   0   0
Picacho.........................  85  56  93  61 /  30  10   0   0
Elk.............................  85  54  90  57 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...12