985
FXUS65 KABQ 200539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

The dry, warm and breezy to windy weather pattern continues
through most of next week. Heat and the threat of critical fire
weather will be a main focus tomorrow, coupled with the threat of
erratic gusty winds from virga showers across parts of western and
central NM Monday afternoon. Those with outdoor plans will need
to be ready to make sudden adjustments near these virga induced
erratic gusty winds as there will be little to no warning from
preceding rainfall. Dry and windy conditions persist Tuesday with
a slight break and cool down through eastern NM Wednesday. Winds
pick back up Thursday and Friday with the threat of critical fire
weather continuing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Two upper level features will combine to bring a round of strong
winds to the area Monday, the first being a Pacific low offshore of
SoCal and the second an upper level trough over the Pacific NW.
These features will move east through Monday night, with the Pacific
low forecast to open up into a shortwave trough and accelerate
northeast across AZ toward the Four Corners on Monday. Increasing
southwest flow aloft and a deepening lee side trough are forecast
Monday, with deep layer mixing up to around 500mb across much of the
area. A windy day is expected and speeds will likely exceed advisory
threshold across a few of our western forecast zones near Gallup
Monday afternoon, so will go ahead and pull the trigger on an
advisory. The 12Z GFS MOS has sustained speeds of 33kts at KGUP by
00Z Tuesday. A slug of Pacific moisture in the mid levels of the
atmosphere is forecast advect northeast ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough Monday and move into western NM by late afternoon.
This will bring increasing cloud cover late afternoon through the
evening hours, with sufficient instability for some high-based
virga showers across western and into central portions of NM Monday
late afternoon and evening. Strong/erratic wind gusts are likely
between the Continental Divide and the Rio Grande Valley Monday
evening, with speeds up to 60mph possible. Meanwhile, high
temperatures will be a solid 5-10 degrees above normal across
eastern NM Monday and Roswell is forecast to hit 100+ degrees again.
Forcing associated with the northern stream trough will get into the
mix overnight Monday and help to bring a round of showers and storms
to the northern mountains, which may bring a round of snow to the
peaks above 11Kft.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

Tuesday begins the long term period with a shortwave
trough passing north of NM over CO, providing dry and gusty winds
over the majority of the forecast area. A combination of lowering
pressure heights and a Pacific cold front progressing through
northwestern NM will yield forecast highs falling 3F-7F from
Monday`s readings. Gust southwesterly to westerly winds will be
present all areas, but the strongest sustained winds reaching 25 to
30 mph will focus through the highlands in and around Las Vegas.
Thereafter, a very shallow frontal boundary will back through
eastern NM Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Cross-sections
of this frontal progression show the front only reaching up to 750mb
after its initial surge through the northeastern plains. There will
be a brief cool down in temperatures across eastern NM behind this
cold front, but the shallow nature of the airmass and winds already
veering back out of the south by the afternoon will allow for a
quick modification of the airmass and only a modest drop in forecast
high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Central and western areas
will see continued dry and breezy conditions Wednesday, not having
the cold front reach this area of NM.

A continued synoptic scale troughing pattern is favored Thursday
with strengthening southwesterly winds returning to many areas. This
will push what`s left of the cooler airmass across eastern NM back
east into TX where a sharpening dryline feature will exist.
Numerical model guidance is in good agreement that the dry
southwesterly flow will be present all areas Thursday afternoon with
any low-level moisture being relegated to our neighbors in TX and
OK. This basic weather pattern looks favored to continue Friday and
into next weekend with another weak backdoor front passing through
eastern NM briefly to end the week, replaced by strengthening
southwest flow again Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. West to
southwest winds will gradually in speed through the afternoon
hours on Monday. Strongest winds are expected across western NM
where gusts may near 45kt, including at KGUP. A batch of mid level
moisture will also increase cloud cover across western NM during
the afternoon hours. A Pacific cold front/cold pool outflow
boundary will race from west to east during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Virga and/or light rain along the boundary will be
possible across northwest and north central NM which will enhance
the potential for gusty and erratic winds, potentially near 50kt.
The boundary will push through ABQ/AEG/SAF between 01 and 03Z Tue
before continuing across eastern NM. An Airport Weather Warning
will likely be needed for the ABQ Sunport during the late
afternoon and evening hours, particular when the boundary pushes
through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Sun May 19 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COMING TO WESTERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NM MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY...

Hot, dry and unstable conditions will be the rule going forward with
bouts of critical fire weather conditions across western and
portions of central NM. The Fire Weather Watch for Monday is being
upgraded to a warning with winds and humidity easily exceeding
critical threshold and deep layer mixing up to around 500mb. A round
of virga showers late Monday across central/western NM will bring
strong/erratic wind gusts and perhaps a few dry lightning strikes. An
upper level trough approaching from over the Great Basin will bring
a round of wetting showers and storms to the northern mountains
Monday night. The trough will move east over the central/southern
Rockies Tuesday, with strong winds rounding the base over NM and
bringing more critical fire weather conditions to central/western
NM, although spotty. Concerns for fire growth across eastern NM are
very low given recent rain, ongoing greenup and low ERC values.
Expect a break Wednesday with weaker flow aloft and lighter winds at
the surface, but winds and critical fire weather conditions will be
back on the uptrend Thursday as another trough moves through the
central Rockies, bringing a deepening lee side trough. Another,
weaker trough will approach Saturday, brining the potential for
another round of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  45  81  44  75 /   0   5  10   0
Dulce...........................  39  76  34  72 /   0  10  30  10
Cuba............................  44  76  39  72 /   0  10  10   0
Gallup..........................  37  77  36  75 /   0  10  10   0
El Morro........................  40  74  39  70 /   0  10  20   0
Grants..........................  37  79  39  76 /   0   5  10   0
Quemado.........................  41  78  40  76 /   0  10  10   0
Magdalena.......................  50  82  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  43  77  44  75 /   0   5   5   0
Reserve.........................  38  81  38  81 /   0   5   0   0
Glenwood........................  53  84  52  84 /   0   5   0   0
Chama...........................  38  70  32  65 /   0  10  30  10
Los Alamos......................  53  76  46  72 /   0   5  20   0
Pecos...........................  45  78  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
Cerro/Questa....................  44  72  41  65 /   0   0  30   5
Red River.......................  37  66  33  62 /   0   0  30   5
Angel Fire......................  33  69  33  63 /   0   0  20   0
Taos............................  41  77  37  71 /   0   0  20   0
Mora............................  45  76  41  70 /   0   0  10   0
Espanola........................  50  83  46  79 /   0   0  10   0
Santa Fe........................  50  79  46  74 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Fe Airport................  47  81  46  78 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  56  84  54  81 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  86  52  83 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  88  52  85 /   0   0  10   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  54  86  52  83 /   0   0  10   0
Belen...........................  51  90  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  55  86  52  84 /   0   0  10   0
Bosque Farms....................  50  88  49  85 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  52  86  52  84 /   0   0  10   0
Los Lunas.......................  51  89  51  85 /   0   0   5   0
Placitas........................  55  83  52  79 /   0   0  10   0
Rio Rancho......................  55  85  51  83 /   0   0  10   0
Socorro.........................  55  92  54  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  79  48  73 /   0   0  10   0
Tijeras.........................  51  80  48  76 /   0   0  10   0
Edgewood........................  50  81  45  77 /   0   0  10   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  83  44  78 /   0   0   5   0
Clines Corners..................  45  79  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  50  82  46  78 /   0   0   5   0
Gran Quivira....................  47  83  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  57  87  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  53  80  53  76 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  47  82  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  46  84  46  78 /   0   0   5   0
Springer........................  47  85  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  47  80  46  75 /   0   0   5   0
Clayton.........................  54  89  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  52  86  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  54  92  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  56  90  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  53  95  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  57  94  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  56  95  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  57  94  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  61 100  63  97 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  92  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  56  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ101-105-106-
109-124.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM to 8 PM MDT Monday for NMZ202-205-206.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...34