Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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248 FXUS65 KABQ 161159 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 559 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with much cooler temperatures remain in today`s forecast. A few of the storms in eastern NM could become strong to severe this afternoon and early evening. Precipitation chances decrease around sunset, ending all together by midnight. A drying and warming trend will get underway Friday, continuing through the weekend. Winds are forecast to increase into the breezy category Sunday with breezy to locally windy and hot weather forecast on Monday. Roswell will likely hit its first 100 degree day Sunday. A dry cold front remains in the forecast to bring temperatures back down to near seasonal averages Tuesday and Wedesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Scattered showers and a few storms can be seen on radar slowly moving north across the forecast area out ahead of an upper-low. The backdoor front has pushed through the gaps of the central mtn chain, creating an area of convergence in central NM that will be the focus of shower development over the next several hours. The other area to watch overnight is the HPCC burn scar where moderate rainfall rates are currently ongoing. Radar is only showing 0.25-0.5" within the last few hours, but this may be an underestimation given that precipitation gauges, including KLVS, are reporting more than the radar would suggest. The Flash Flood Watch start time was bumped up a few hours to account for this ongoing shower activity. The good news is that convective development to the south of the burn area appears unlikely through the rest of the overnight so precipitation rates will be on the lighter side (<0.1"/hr). However, this soaking rain will make it harder for soil to absorb heavier rainfall rates associated with storms this afternoon. Precipitation coverage will increase after sunrise, particularly across central NM near the center of the upper-low. Moderate to locally heavy precipitation could produce a quick 0.25" of rain along the RGV, including Albuquerque and Santa Fe, making for a slick morning commute. Hi-res guidance is in decent agreement that a few cells will develop in the moist and unstable atmosphere in the southeast and east-central plains during the late morning/early afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km should be enough to create strong updrafts and bulk shear upwards of 60kts will be more than enough to organize them. It`s difficult to say exactly where these potentially severe discrete cells will develop given the myriad of outflow boundaries sloshing around out there, but the HREF suggests Roosevelt and Chaves counties are most likely. Meanwhile outflows associated with showers and storms in central NM will favor clustering as the afternoon progresses. The ample shear should promote enough organization for these storms to persist as they move eastward towards the TX border through the afternoon. 0.25"-0.75" of rainfall will be commonplace, but localized totals up to 2" are possible in locations that see repeated rounds of storms. The most likely time for burn scar flash flooding would be late morning to early afternoon for both the HPCC and McBride burn areas. Most storms exit to the east by sunset, with the exception of a few showers and storms developing off of outflow boundaries in the eastern plains during the evening and early overnight hours. Temperatures will rebound tomorrow as heights rise and drier air infiltrates from the northwest. Highs will range from 10 to as much as 20 degrees greater than today`s values. A few sprinkles are possible over the high terrain during the afternoon hours, but wetting footprints will be very small. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 A broad ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Friday night, lingering overhead through Saturday. Models remain in good agreement with this ridge axis translating east of the state Saturday night. A weak short wave trough in the split flow between the polar and subtropical jets is then forecast to lift northeastward through CO Sunday, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditons areawide Sunday afternoon. Winds ramp up further Monday, with the strongest winds expected in western NM as surface high pressure over southern AZ combines with a lee side surface low in far southeast CO. The associated dry cold front is more definitive from tonight`s model suite, forecast to move from west to east through the state Monday evening. Temperatures are forecast to cool closer to seasonal averages behind the front Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Showers and storms will increase in coverage the next several hours, particularly across central NM on the leading edge of the backdoor front that has stalled out along the Rio Grande Valley. Numerous showers and storms will slowly move to the east at 5-10kts today, but outflow dominated storms could make for erratic storm motion and propagation, particularly across northern NM where steering flow is weaker. A few discrete cells may develop during the late morning in the southeast plains, with the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storms cluster together in east-central NM early this afternoon as they move off to the east. Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours will accompany this group of storms, dropping cigs and visibility down to MVFR thresholds. Brief IFR conditions are possible with stronger storms as well. With a weak surface pressure gradient and extensive storm coverage, winds will be quite erratic at all terminals so overall confidence in prevailing wind directions is low through the late afternoon hours. Storms exit to the east around 02Z today, however some models are showing convection re-developing in the east central plains between 03Z and 07Z along remnant boundaries. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 118 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024 Numerous showers and storms are expected today, with rainfall totals generally ranging from 0.25" to 0.75" across central and eastern NM. Locally heavy rainfall could produce burn scar flash flooding, with the greatest likelihood during the late morning/early afternoon hours. Clusters of storms across eastern NM will produce small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall and a few may be capable of producing large hail and gusty winds in the eastern plains. Drier air enters from the northwest Friday in the wake of the exiting upper-low. This will improve ventilation areawide as skies clear. A few showers may develop over the high terrain during the afternoon hours, but wetting footprints will be very small. Temperatures rise late week into the weekend as a ridge builds overhead. Highs will be 5-15 degrees above average Sunday and Monday, which look to be the warmest days of the week. Breezy southwest to west winds will likely create widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across most of the area Sunday and Monday as well. A Pacific cold front associated with a weak disturbance knocks down temps a few degrees Tuesday, but at least elevated fire weather concerns are expected to stick around through mid-next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 74 43 82 48 / 20 10 0 0 Dulce........................... 66 34 76 37 / 70 30 10 0 Cuba............................ 61 38 75 45 / 70 20 0 0 Gallup.......................... 70 35 79 42 / 40 10 0 0 El Morro........................ 63 38 74 45 / 60 30 5 0 Grants.......................... 66 35 78 44 / 70 30 0 0 Quemado......................... 65 40 75 45 / 60 40 5 0 Magdalena....................... 62 46 77 52 / 80 30 5 0 Datil........................... 61 42 74 49 / 80 30 10 0 Reserve......................... 69 36 81 40 / 70 30 10 0 Glenwood........................ 74 49 84 55 / 50 30 10 0 Chama........................... 59 34 69 39 / 80 30 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 59 45 72 50 / 80 20 5 0 Pecos........................... 57 39 72 47 / 90 30 5 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 55 38 68 47 / 90 20 5 0 Red River....................... 50 32 63 38 / 90 20 10 0 Angel Fire...................... 51 28 66 35 / 90 40 10 0 Taos............................ 60 34 74 40 / 80 20 5 0 Mora............................ 53 35 71 43 / 90 30 5 0 Espanola........................ 66 44 80 45 / 70 20 5 0 Santa Fe........................ 57 43 73 50 / 80 20 5 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 60 42 77 47 / 80 20 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 50 80 55 / 90 20 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 49 81 53 / 80 20 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 66 48 83 52 / 80 20 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 64 49 82 54 / 80 20 0 0 Belen........................... 68 46 84 50 / 80 20 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 66 47 83 52 / 80 20 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 67 45 83 49 / 80 20 0 0 Corrales........................ 66 46 83 52 / 80 20 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 67 45 84 50 / 80 20 0 0 Placitas........................ 61 48 78 54 / 90 20 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 66 48 83 53 / 80 20 0 0 Socorro......................... 71 50 86 55 / 70 30 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 57 44 73 51 / 90 30 0 0 Tijeras......................... 59 45 75 50 / 90 30 0 0 Edgewood........................ 59 41 76 46 / 90 20 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 59 36 77 40 / 90 20 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 55 39 72 46 / 80 30 0 0 Mountainair..................... 60 42 75 49 / 80 20 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 61 41 75 49 / 70 20 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 67 48 79 55 / 80 30 10 0 Ruidoso......................... 60 44 72 51 / 90 30 20 0 Capulin......................... 56 39 72 46 / 70 10 5 0 Raton........................... 59 38 76 43 / 80 10 5 0 Springer........................ 59 39 77 42 / 80 20 5 0 Las Vegas....................... 56 38 74 45 / 80 30 5 0 Clayton......................... 65 46 78 53 / 50 30 0 0 Roy............................. 59 42 75 47 / 70 50 5 0 Conchas......................... 66 48 81 49 / 80 50 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 61 47 79 50 / 70 40 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 66 48 81 52 / 60 50 0 0 Clovis.......................... 69 51 80 55 / 80 70 5 0 Portales........................ 73 50 82 53 / 80 70 5 0 Fort Sumner..................... 69 49 81 50 / 70 50 0 0 Roswell......................... 75 56 86 58 / 70 30 5 0 Picacho......................... 68 48 81 55 / 80 20 10 0 Elk............................. 67 46 78 52 / 80 20 10 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for NMZ215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...16