578
FXUS63 KABR 051746 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds will increase out of the west-northwest during the day
  Wednesday and Thursday. Gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected with
  the strongest winds over central SD Wednesday. On Thursday, 35
  to 40 mph gusts are expected with the strongest over
  northeastern SD.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1021 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Radar still showing sprinkles/very light showers moving east-
southeast along and south of Hwy 212. Made some adjustments to
PoPs/sky grids based on latest radar/satellite trends. Otherwise,
will leave Wind Advisory in place in anticipation of 45+ mph gusts
for much of the CWA this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

As of 3 AM CDT, some high clouds are moving into central SD. These
will continue to spread east through the day. Temperatures are in
the low 50s with winds out of the southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Some light showers are possible during the mid to late morning
hours, mainly south of Hwy 12. Measurable precipitation is not
expected. Highs today will be in the 70s, right around average. The
big thing today is going to be winds. Model soundings are showing
winds at the top of the mixing layer (about 700 mb) of 40 kts or
more. CAA and steep lapse rates will help mix these winds down to
the surface resulting in gusts of 40 to 50 mph with the strongest
winds in central SD and on the northern side of the Prairie Coteau.
Winds are expected to diminish after sunset, and gust up to 40 mph
Thursday afternoon (slightly higher over the northern portion of the
Prairie Coteau).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

00Z Friday the pressure gradient will really start to weaken from
southwest to northeast across the forecast area. We`ll lose those
20kt winds or greater than have been just above the surface since
this morning. We`ll hold on to those higher winds just above the
surface until after 06Z for areas near and northeast of Sisseton.
Northwesterly flow will continue at 500mb through at least Saturday
night as the low over the Upper Great Lakes at 00Z Friday shifts
only slightly east to the Lower Great Lakes by 12Z Sunday. At the
same time the ridge over the Great Basin will generally remain over
the region. High pressure at the surface, centered over eastern
KS/western MO at 00Z Friday will keep a ridge extended up through
our forecast area through the overnight hours. There is some
uncertainty on specifics for Friday afternoon and evening with
smaller waves moving through the northwesterly flow aloft both to
our north and south with a weak surface low over eastern MT being
suppressed to the southeast, but just how quickly. This could have
significant differences in temperatures and even precipitation
chances for Friday afternoon. Stay tuned. At this point it looks
like increased cloud cover will be the main result. Our mainly dry
forecast looks to hold through Monday, but we`ll continue to monitor
the potential for Friday night into this weekend as the training
500mb trough nears as the main low sinks across the Lower Great
Lakes. Overall, temperatures through the extended remain in a 10
degree range with the potential for increased cloud cover starting
Friday through Monday night, and lighter winds than today and
tomorrow.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty west-northwest surface winds will prevail this afternoon,
with diminishing speeds tonight, but will ramp back up once again
on Thursday. LLWS (low-level wind shear) may be a concern across
the region overnight, with higher confidence in KATY, so inserted
mention of this for their TAF. May need to address other sites for
the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...TMT