191
FXUS63 KABR 050520 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very light showers (15-25% chance) may develop across central
  South Dakota Wednesday morning.

- Winds will increase out of the west-northwest during the day
  Wednesday and Thursday. Gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected with
  the strongest winds over central SD Wednesday and northeastern SD
  on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Updated for 06Z TAF discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 908 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The rain and associated cloud cover has exited the region to the
east, and the remainder of the overnight hours will be dry. No
changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Light showers continue to track east this afternoon behind the cold
front. Showers will exit this evening and northwest winds will
diminish. As the upper trough digs south with ample shortwave
energy, it may generate some light sprinkles or showers across
central SD late tonight into Wednesday morning. Models are in less
agreement today about the precip potential for early Wednesday than
they were during Monday`s runs. So, for now, only have 15 to 20%
pops in. Given the drier air, virga is just as likely an outcome.

Moderate caa sliding in with the upper trough, steep lapse rates and
a strong jet aloft with 55kts as low as 700 mb will all contribute
to a windy day across the region on Wednesday. Expect west to
northwest winds to increase during the morning with gusts to 50 mph
likely around the Missouri River. Issued a wind advisory for central
SD for daytime Wednesday. While the rest of the area will be close
to wind advisory criteria, will let the mid shift decide whether one
is warranted. Right now, only 90th percentile solutions have eastern
locales gusting to 45 mph or above, but wouldn`t be surprised if
channeled higher elevations near the Coteau or Leola Hills hit
criteria especially given the northwest alignment through the levels
and potential for really good mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

To start out the long term period at 00Z Thursday we`ll have the
surface high over northern Manitoba/Ontario and an elongated ridge
of high pressure set up from off the coast of WA/British Columbia
through MT and far southwestern SD. At 500mb we have the low to our
north across central Canada and a dominant ridge of high pressure
set up from the 4-corners region through much the Pacific Northwest
and southwestern Canada.

A period of stronger winds will remain Wednesday night into
Thursday, particularly with the stronger mixing during the afternoon
hours. Model data indicates mixing up to 750-700mb Thursday
afternoon, highest over central SD with the tighter pressure
gradient between the low to our northeast and ridge to our
southwest. Relative humidity values Thursday afternoon drop 20-25%
west of the Missouri River, and 25-30% east. Fortunately, the recent
rainfall and greenup of fuels will help limit some of the fire
weather concerns Thursday afternoon given the winds gusting out of
the northwest 25-35kts in the afternoon.

The ridge of high pressure will slowly edge east across the forecast
area Thursday night through at least Friday, keeping our dry weather
conditons in place and result in diminishing winds. There is still
some uncertainty with the strength and how far east the western 500mb
ridge will be able to make it as the Canadian low dives into the
northeastern U.S. for early next week. Still, 20-40% chances for
mainly showers and limited thunderstorms looks reasonable for Monday
into Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Wednesday. West to northwest winds will increase into the
25 to 40 knot range around mid morning Wednesday and will continue
through the early evening hours. A few light rain showers are
possible during the day Wednesday as well, but due to the
uncertainty of location, will not mention in the TAFs for now.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning to 8 PM CDT
     /7 PM MDT/ this evening for SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-
     045-048.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KK
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...MMM
AVIATION...Parkin