713
FXUS63 KABR 040620 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
120 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30-60% chance of showers and sub-severe thunderstorms
  this evening through Tuesday. Best chances will be Tuesday morning.
  Generally, less than a tenth of an inch is expected.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Updated for 06Z TAF discussion below

UPDATE Issued at 906 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Seeing some shower and thunderstorm activity across north central
South Dakota this evening. CAMs are in pretty good agreement that
the additional shower and storms will remain north of the CWA
overnight, with more development further south during the day
Tuesday. Adjusted POPs a bit based of where the current activity
it. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A cold front trailing off a Saskatchewan low will bring some showers
to the region tonight through Tuesday. Moisture availability is less
than impressive so generally expect less than a tenth of an inch for
rain, but could be isolated higher amounts with the isolated
thunderstorms.

An upper trough follows behind the sfc front bringing in caa. The
caa is somewhat aborted over SD and stronger over ND, so could see a
brief fall or lack of rise in temps Tuesday afternoon before they
recover. Although there are differences in the models, can`t
completely rule out a few light showers between Hwy 12 and Hwy 14
late Tuesday night on the southern edge of a potent shortwave in the
upper trough. For now, kept pops below a precip mention, but may
need to add some in as models resolve the timeframe better.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The long term portion of the forecast will feature mostly dry
conditions with near to perhaps slight below average temperatures.
The period begins on Wednesday with northwesterly flow aloft with
perhaps a secondary frontal boundary sliding southward across the
area. The far northeast corner of the CWA has a 15-20% chance of
seeing instability showers in the afternoon. The northwesterly flow
aloft and dry conditions appears to continue through Friday morning.
Friday afternoon through perhaps Saturday, an invented surface
trough and frontal boundary may slide southward across the forecast
area, bringing a low, under 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms.
The probability of seeing 0.05 inches of QPF in a 6 hour period is
10 to 15% per the NBM. The reminder of the period appears mostly dry
with perhaps some lee of the Black Hills convection Sunday night.

High temperatures may range from the low to mid 70s in northeastern
South Dakota and western MN, to the upper 70s and low 80s at times,
west of the James River.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 118 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible overnight
into the day Tuesday. Other than the potential for some MVFR vsbys
with any thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail across the
area overnight and through the day Tuesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KK
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin