162
FXUS63 KABR 292014
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 30 to 60 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  across central South Dakota tonight. This activity will track
  eastward late tonight and Thursday. Northeastern South Dakota
  will see a 50 to 70 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  on Thursday, with lesser chances across central South Dakota.

- The next decent chance (40 to 75 percent) for showers and
  thunderstorms will occur Sunday into Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

An upper level ridge currently over the region will get pushed east
tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. The energy with
this wave will skirt the region tonight, with just some weaker
energy later in the day Thursday and Thursday night.

At the surface, the region is currently between high pressure to the
east and an elongated low pressure system to the west, with a fairly
tight pressure gradient creating windy conditions. The strong winds
will diminish this evening. The frontal boundary associated with the
low to the west will reach the very western edge of the CWA by
midnight or so, then to along the Missouri River by Thursday
morning. Will see a 40 to 50 knot low level jet develop in that same
general area overnight, however instability and shear will be fairly
weak. Expect to see some thunderstorm activity along the front, but
will only see chances for strong storms this evening west of the
Missouri River before the loss of daytime heating. The boundary will
slowly track eastward Thursday, before exiting the CWA Thursday
evening. Will see scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
continue along it, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA, but
chances for severe weather are minimal. If any precipitation lingers
into Thursday night, it will be just over the far southeastern part
of the CWA.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Lows
Thursday night will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

The long term begins on Friday with an upper level trough over the
region with a high pressure at the surface. A weak shortwave
embedded within the trough axis may cause showers and thunderstorms
over western SD on Friday, with a few storms possibly reaching the
Missouri River valley. Otherwise, dry should prevail until Sunday
afternoon/evening. This is when an area of low pressure and upper
level trough will impact the region. Warm air advection showers and
thunderstorms may be possible (20-40%) early Sunday morning with
clearing skies possible Sunday afternoon. If skies are able to
clear, the environment may become conducive for severe weather late
Sunday afternoon and evening, mainly over eastern South Dakota and
western Minnesota. The storm system should push east of the CWA by
Monday morning, with a period of dry conditions possible. A stronger
storm system may progress across the region on Tuesday, bringing
another round of storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon and
tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread from
west to east this evening through the morning hours on Thursday.
Periods of MVFR vsbys will be possible with the precipitation.
IFR/MVFR cigs will settle in across the area Thursday morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Parkin