226
FNUS73 KABR 161504
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Hornstein WMA Rx...MN DNR
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1004 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...West-northwest winds are forecast at the burn site
this morning, then becoming a bit more true westerly by
afternoon. Later this evening/overnight, expect winds to
eventually turn southerly. Afternoon humidity is forecast to drop
to between 40 and 45 percent. Proximity to Big Stone Lake could
have minor effects on wind direction and humidity values. There
is just a very slight chance (10%) for a shower or thunderstorm
late this afternoon into the evening hours (after 3PM), but more
likely holding off until after 7PM.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................4 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......3500-6500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (55900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (71800 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or (very low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........40  29  17  19  21  24  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   10  10  10
Temp............61  63  65  68  71  72  73
RH..............72  67  59  51  47  46  44
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  12  10  9   9   8   7
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  15  14  14  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5 4.0 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.5 6.4
Smoke Dispersal.FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1900, then 2 until 2100, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 6 mph shifting to the south 7
                    to 8 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......400-5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph shifting to the south 8 to 16
                    mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (52700 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or (moderate) to (high).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........28  30  32  33  35  36  38  39  35  32  28  24
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0
Temp............73  71  67  62  60  56  56  55  54  54  54  54
RH..............46  49  56  67  72  80  80  83  86  86  83  83
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.12  10  9   9   10  12  12  13  14  14  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.3 3.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
CWR.................1 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......500-6600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (102900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........6 (high).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........21  17  16  14  13  12  10  9   9   9   9   9
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............54  55  58  64  69  72  75  78  81  82  84  84
RH..............86  83  77  65  57  53  50  47  42  43  40  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   10  10  12  12  13  13  13  13  12  12
20 FT wind gust.16  16  17  18  18  18  20  20  20  21  21  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 3.3 4.2 5.8 6.6 6.4 5.0
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD VGD GD

$$
Forecaster...TMT
Requested by...Louise Spiczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414410.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL louise.spiczka@state.mn.us