046
FNUS73 KABR 282250
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Fordham GPA...SD GFP
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
550 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 29.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure overhead during the morning hours will mean
light winds out of the southeast, but those winds will be on the
increase slowly through the afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail
with showers and storms not expected into far eastern South
Dakota until the morning hours early Thursday.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 12 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......2400-4700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (29300 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (78500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   5   6   6   6   6   5
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............61  64  68  70  72  73  74  74
RH..............56  52  47  45  42  41  40  40
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..12  13  14  15  15  16  16  16
20 FT wind gust.17  18  21  22  24  25  26  26
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 3.1 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.6
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    early in the morning.
CWR.................9 percent increasing to 20 percent early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0500, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 32 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Mixing height.......700-4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 18 to 23 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   11  16  22  27  33  38  42  46  50  53
Weather cov.....                                            CHC
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........                                            SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  30
Temp............74  72  69  65  62  61  61  60  59  58  57  56
RH..............40  42  47  54  58  60  60  62  64  69  72  77
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..16  16  16  17  17  17  18  18  18  20  20  20
20 FT wind gust.26  26  26  26  28  29  29  30  31  31  32  32
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Smoke Dispersal.GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms.
CWR.................22 percent increasing to 71 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0700, then 3 until 1000, then 2 until
                    1300, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 16 to 22 mph with gusts to around
                    33 mph shifting to the southwest around 14 mph
                    late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-1900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 16 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 (very low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  61  69  77  85  87  89  91  90  89  88  86
Weather cov.....CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).40  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90  90
Temp............56  57  59  62  65  67  68  69  64  64  64  64
RH..............77  75  76  77  78  79  80  81  81  81  81  80
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW
20 FT wind spd..21  21  21  22  22  22  21  20  18  17  16  14
20 FT wind gust.33  33  33  33  33  33  32  31  30  28  25  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Connelly
Requested by...Owen McElroy
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415238.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL owen.mcelroy@state.sd.us