929
FNUS73 KABR 200314
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Cottonwood GPA...State of South Dakota
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1014 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 CDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Additional details would be appreciated on if this is an ongoing
prescribed burn, as it will help us add better detail to the time
that is most important. Also, it is assumed that current and ongoing
rainfall amounts would be beneficial. Rainfall will be ending at
the Cottonwood GPA by 2400, with a storm total estimate of 0.25 to
0.40 inches. Winds out of the northwest will switch out of the north
Monday morning, with minimum relative humidity near 50 percent. The
current forecast calls for around 0.05 inches of rain or less Monday
afternoon. A widespread rain is expected during the day Tuesday,
with rainfall amounts 0.75 to 1.50 inches.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent) becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
CWR.................17 percent decreasing to 6 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 14 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    south 7 to 12 mph overnight, then shifting to
                    the northwest 7 to 9 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......400-700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph shifting to the north 10 to
                    15 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........96  80  64  48  52  55  42
Weather cov.....SCH
Weather type....RW
Tstm cov........SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  10  0   0   0   0   0
Temp............65  64  61  56  55  54  54
RH..............68  70  81  100 100 100 100
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   SW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..15  14  12  7   7   8   9
20 FT wind gust.24  22  17  12  13  14  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1600.
CWR.................5 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1600, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 10 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......900-4500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (54300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 (low).

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  57  65  65  62  57  54  56  59  53  63  66
Weather cov.....                                        SCH SCH
Weather type....                                        RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20
Temp............53  52  54  56  60  62  64  66  68  68  68  69
RH..............100 100 100 90  75  72  65  58  57  54  52  51
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..10  12  13  13  14  14  14  14  14  14  13  13
20 FT wind gust.16  18  20  20  20  21  20  20  20  18  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.5 3.0 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the evening, becoming likely. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms through the night.
CWR.................7 percent increasing to 57 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......400-4000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (43800 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........60  59  68  78  77  76  85  89  93  93  93  92
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20  30  30  40  40  50  60  70  70  60  70  70
Temp............68  66  64  61  57  56  55  54  53  52  51  51
RH..............51  54  60  65  77  77  80  83  86  89  93  93
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..13  12  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   9   10  12
20 FT wind gust.18  17  17  17  16  15  15  15  16  17  18  20
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...KF
Requested by...Zac Hook
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414695.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Zachariah.hook@state.sd.us