770
FNUS73 KABR 161230
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Simpson GPA Prescribed Fire...Game Fish and Parks
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
730 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...The majority of the day will be dry today, with a small
chance for showers or thunderstorms along the North Dakota/South
Dakota border late this afternoon and this evening. Warmer air will
move into the region on Friday, along with a better chance for
strong, to possibly severe, thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly
across central South Dakota. Minimum relative humidity values
this afternoon will be between 35 and 40 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (30-40 percent).
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-8900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (69600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to very good (106500
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........49  44  39  33  28  23  30  37  44  51
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10
Temp............44  49  56  64  68  71  73  75  75  76
RH..............89  83  68  52  45  42  40  38  38  37
20 FT wind dir..VRB VRB W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   2   5   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.3   3   7   13  14  15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.2 2.1 4.6 5.8 7.6 8.9 8.7 7.3
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD VGD VGD VGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms through the night. Chance of rain
                    showers overnight.
CWR.................6 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2100, then 2 until 2200, then 1 until
                    0100, then 2 until 0400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    south 8 to 10 mph late in the evening. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400-6300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (88600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or (moderate) to (high).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........58  65  63  61  59  56  54  52  48  43  39  34
Weather cov.....            SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC SCH SCH
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            SCH             SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  20  20  20  20  30  20  20  10  10
Temp............74  72  68  64  61  57  57  56  55  55  54  53
RH..............40  42  49  58  65  75  75  77  80  77  77  80
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  9   9   8
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  16  16  17  17  18  18  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...6.3 5.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5
Smoke Dispersal.GD  GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...Parkin
Requested by...Patrick Tate
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414376.0/ABR
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Patrick.tate@state.sd.us